Heavily populated coastlines and another active hurricane season make it vital for risk managers as well as local and federal governments to take every precaution and to be prepared, according to a national hurricane expert.

This season is expected to be "another very active hurricane season," with 13-to-16 named storms, including eight-to-10 that are expected to become hurricanes, with four-to- six likely to be classified as major events, warned Gerry Bell, lead developer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic hurricane outlook.

Mr. Bell revealed his predictions during a recent Marsh Internet seminar on "Preparing for the 2006 Hurricane Season."

During active seasons such as this one, two-to-four hurricanes typically strike the United States. The Atlantic has been active since 1995, he said, adding that, historically, active hurricane seasons have had alternating 25-to-40-year periods of increased and decreased activity.

This means "we could expect to see ongoing high levels of hurricane seasons and hurricane landfalls for another decade or longer," he explained.

An indicator of an active season, he said, is storms that form in the "deep tropics between Africa and the Caribbean islands, as we saw last year." Hurricanes normally don't form in these areas this time of year, he noted. However, "if they do in June or July, this would indicate that conditions are already in place for an extremely active season," he added.

One bright spot, he noted, is that because of satellite shifts and global weather measurements, NOAA is now able to monitor and predict emerging climate patterns in a way that wasn't possible 10 years ago. "As a result, we can now make highly confident seasonal hurricane outlooks, as we've been doing since 1998," he said.

Advance planning is more critical than ever because coastlines have built up tremendously in the last 30 years. "The Census Bureau considers roughly 30 percent of Americans--more than 80 million people--to be Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast residents," meaning that more people are affected when a hurricane strikes, Mr. Bell said.

Many more areas have also been compromised because of damage from previous hurricane seasons, he noted.

Mr. Bell cautioned that individuals and businesses in compromised areas must realize they are at a greater risk of damage and injury should a hurricane strike again.

Special Reports /

Active Hurricane Season Ahead, Risk Managers Warned

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