There's been enough talk of an influenza pandemic to make preparation a hot topic with risk managers--even a featured session at this week's Public Risk Management Association annual conference in Las Vegas. In fact, a potential widespread influenza pandemic is a public risk manager's worst nightmare. The implications are enormous, even devastating--yet it's also possible that a pandemic isn't in the cards at all (we hope). And so it's up to risk managers not only to prepare for the unthinkable but to do it without causing too much alarm.
It's also necessary to carry out these preparations now, in the early stages, while thinking is clear and rational.
Whether or not the H5N1 virus, or bird flu, will reach pandemic proportions is open to debate. Some experts warn of dire consequences should the virus continue to jump from birds to humans, or to other species such as pigs, dogs or horses.
So far, the death toll worldwide has been relatively small. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reports that as of October 2005, the bird flu virus had infected more than 115 humans. (The scary part is that about half of those infected have died.)
It's also been pointed out that in earlier 20th century pandemics, most of those who died were relatively young and healthy--the opposite of most influenza outbreaks that we're familiar with.
If a major pandemic were to spread, the repercussions are beyond imagination. Unfortunately, that's the job of a risk manager--to imagine the unimaginable and then prioritize loss control responses.
But how will risk managers know if a pandemic is at hand? And who will advise them of what actions to take in a crisis?
Marc Lipsitch, associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health, cautioned at a recent seminar in New York--sponsored by the modeling firm Risk Management Solutions--that public risk managers won't be getting much direction from the federal government. In fact, he told NU that the current administration is basically "hands-off."
This means it's up to risk managers and their teams to come up with policies and procedures that best suit their situation--adapting as many disaster plans already in place as possible.
They also need to be vigilant about monitoring Web sites of groups such as the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and pandemicflu.gov.
The HHS Web site includes a list of states and territories, noting how $1 billion was awarded to prepare for a pandemic. California was given $6.7 million, with L.A. County receiving $2.9 million. Florida got $4.63 million and Ohio received $3.28 million. New York state received $3.2 million, while New York City got $2.46 million. Wyoming received $622,102.
But while these Web sites offer a ton of information, one critical fact remains: The HHS Pandemic Plan calls for the acquisition of enough antiviral drugs to treat only 25 percent of the U.S. population.
So, if there is a pandemic, who will get the vaccine? And if the most vulnerable are treated first, as in the past, the vaccine's effects could be undermined if the virus attacks the healthiest members of the population. Manufacturing new supplies takes time, and time won't be available in the heat of a pandemic.
Once again, both public and private sector risk managers will need to make some difficult and painful decisions--and if a pandemic does strike there will be little room for error. It's better to be safe than sorry, so get ready now.
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