Industry leaders need to get the message to front-line underwriters to maintain pricing discipline, but even that might not prevent a pricing "bloodbath" this fall if the hurricane season is moderate, CEOs here warned.

Speaking at the Standard & Poor's annual insurance conference, the chief executives--Edmund Kelly of Liberty Mutual, Martin Sullivan of American International Group, and Dinos Iordanou of Bermuda-based Arch Capital Group--sounded more pessimistic than S&P's analysts, who have stable outlooks on all sectors of the property-casualty industry.

"We don't seem to learn from the mistakes of the past. That's a fact," said Mr. Sullivan--responding to a question from the panel's moderator, Thomas Upton, a managing director for S&P.

Mr. Upton asked if the leaders were concerned that underwriting discipline would erode as interest rates climb and memories of past reserve issues fade. He asked the panelists: Has there been any change in the industry that will prevent this?

"I've been in this business for 36 years, and candidly, we don't like good times forever," Mr. Sullivan responded. "The down cycles [of soft markets] that have emerged are always longer than the up cycles."

Mr. Sullivan added that "it's always been lack of capacity that's driven prices [upward]," noting that dwindling capacity in the property market--particularly in catastrophe-prone regions--is pushing those prices up. "We're seeing prices change daily."

Mr. Kelly sees the property pricing situation differently. "There's plenty of capacity, but the price [of coverage] is pretty steep," he said, describing what he termed a "Mexican standoff" between buyers and sellers. "The buyers are waiting for somebody to blink," he said, and given that it's already a few days into hurricane season, "some blinking is going to happen soon."

Later, Mr. Kelly said that "if there's a moderate hurricane season, I am concerned there will be a bloodbath in the fall in pricing," noting excess capacity might push top-line thinking "to take over overnight."

"Watch the October renewals in commercial [lines]. That will be the first sign of lack of discipline, I think," he said.

S&P analysts are thinking somewhat along the same lines, said S&P Director John Iten during a later session--that a light catastrophe season could accelerate a decline in rates. "But I don't think anyone in our shop was talking about a bloodbath," he said--reporting, for example, that monthly commercial lines price drops that have held roughly at 5 percent are among the factors supporting a stable outlook for now.

Mr. Sullivan said he believes even if the hurricane season is benign, rating agencies will ensure there is some limitation on available capacity--which will, in turn, ensure that some underwriting discipline remains in the property market.

In contrast to Mr. Kelly's view, Mr. Upton said he's heard catastrophe reinsurance capacity will fall 20 percent short of demand, no matter what the price.

Mr. Kelly countered by using the example of Northeast hurricanes, noting market reinsurance pricing is treating this one-in-20-year event as something closer to a one-in-four event. At those price levels, he said, reinsurance capacity is there, but the capacity to pass reinsurance costs through to primary buyers is not.

Referring to Mr. Upton's remark about interest rates, Mr. Iordanou recalled the "classic cash-flow underwriting cycle" of the 1980s, which cost 24 of the top 30 p-c companies that existed back then their independence. "Every other company...weakened their balance sheets to the point that they needed to be consolidated [or] went out of business," he noted.

"Hopefully, we're learning from past mistakes, and we're not going to go back to the slippery road of trying to make lousy underwriting decisions with the hope that the asset side of the balance sheet will help us," Mr. Iordanou said. "But as a student of the business, I'm not very hopeful that our behavior is such."

Mr. Kelly had what he said was a simpler view of how markets change. "An underwriter comes in on Monday and turns down a piece of business. The market's getting soft. [By] Wednesday, he hears from the broker who says, 'You guys don't understand the market.' Thursday, he says, 'If I don't write something, I'm going to lose my job.'"

It's up to management to make sure underwriters understand they don't have to write that piece of business, he said.

"The cultural message has to start from the top," Mr. Iordanou agreed. "The burden falls on us to make sure that message goes through the organization."

Special Reports /

CEOs Fear 'Bloodbath' In Pricing If Moderate Hurricane Season Hits U.S.

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