Claims News Service, May 10, 11:41 a.m. EDT -- AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR), a risk-modeling and technology firm specializing in risks associated with natural and man-made catastrophes, recently issued a white paper entitled "Understanding Climatological Influences on Hurricane Activity: The AIR Near-Term Catalog," which cautions against an over-reliance on its near-term catalog for determining hurricane risk.

The white paper reviews the current state of research on climatological impacts on hurricane activity and explains the approach used to create AIR's near-term sensitivity catalog, which quantifies the influence of sea surface temperature forecasts on insured losses for the next five years.

"Our analyses confirmed the correlation between elevated sea-surface temperatures and overall hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin," said Karen Clark, president and CEO of AIR. "However, there is considerable uncertainty in the expected magnitude and time horizon of potentially elevated risk along the coastline and, most importantly, the impact on regional insured losses.

"Until scientists better understand the relationship between elevated sea-surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane activity, AIR encourages insurers to use the near-term catalog developed by AIR and AEF for sensitivity analyses and not as a replacement for AIR's standard U.S. hurricane model," continued Clark.

For the 2006 hurricane season, AIR will offer three stochastic catalogs for its U.S. hurricane model: the standard catalog, which is based on over 100 years of historical data and over 20 years of research and development; a near-term sensitivity catalog, which reflects recent research on the influence of sea-surface temperatures on hurricane activity; and a 2006 seasonal hurricane catalog that accounts for the influence of current climate signals on hurricane activity for the upcoming season.

More information is available at www.air-worldwide.com.

Special Reports /

AIR Cautions Against Near-Term View of Hurricane Risk

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