At an industry dinner last week, talk of worst-case scenarios dominated the conversation. I awoke with a headache the next morning–perhaps from the wine, but more likely from the discussion of the incredible exposures we face.
The underwriters on hand were cool and confident about their ability to assess such risks, but I came away less certain about how bad a blow the industry could take. Underwriters are essentially fortune-tellers, and while they have increasingly sophisticated, high-tech crystal balls to work with, a leap of faith is still required. Consider the following:
o Hurricane season will soon be upon us. Can we expect fewer, less powerful storms to hit the Gulf? Not if you listen to the climatologists (the real gypsies), who predict we might be in for big trouble again.
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