By Dr. Steve Smith, VP of ReAdvisory

Wilma formed west of Jamaica over the weekend. Wilma is the 21st named storm of the season, which means 2005 is level with 1933 as the most active season on record. Any storms that form subsequent to Wilma (a reasonable expectation) will be named from the Greek alphabet.

So far, Wilma's movement has been slowly westward as the steering currents are light over the Caribbean Sea. Wilma's forecasted track has been erratic over the last few forecast cycles as the models struggle to come to grips with the atmospheric conditions. The models continue to remain inconsistent with the NHC having an unusually low confidence in the models three-to-five days out. However, over the next few days, we expect a slow westward drift, which may lead Wilma to a landfall along Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Beyond three-to-five days, the forecasts become more speculative:

o If Wilma makes a landfall further south on Yucatan, this will probably cause Wilma to decay over land and lose significant intensity. In that case, Wilma may intensify again over the Bay of Campeche (like Emily and Stan earlier this year) and a second landfall along the Mexican coast or southern Texas is likely.

o If Wilma makes a grazing landfall over the northern tip of Yucatan (as the NHC forecast is currently predicting), Wilma will move into the Gulf of Mexico and curve to the northwest. This possibility opens up the U.S. Gulf coast to the potential for a landfall mid-to-late next week. Given that a low pressure system currently over California is forecasted to shift eastward, pushing Wilma ahead of it, this makes a landfall along the coast of Alabama to Florida much more likely than a landfall from Louisiana to Texas.

Intensity predictions are notoriously hard to make over any long period. However, we can make some basic predictions:

1.) If Wilma takes the more southerly track towards Yucatan, it will likely reach strong tropical storm or weak hurricane status before landfall.

2.) If Wilma takes the more northerly track towards the tip of Yucatan, Wilma will pass over the warm waters of the Gulf, which could allow Wilma to intensify to a major hurricane (Cat 3). The waters in the Gulf are warm but not as warm as earlier in the season when they played a large role in making Katrina and Rita two of the most intense hurricanes on record. If Wilma does take this route into the Gulf, a landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast becomes a virtual certainty but, as the waters along Gulf Coast itself are cooler than the main Gulf, landfall as a major hurricane is less likely.

This document was reprinted with permission. More information is available at www.carvill.com.

Disclaimer

ReAdvisory provides this report for general information only. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should be understood to be reinsurance information only. ReAdvisory makes no representations or warranties, express or implied. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. ReAdvisory undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any current or forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, research, future events, or otherwise.

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Tropical Storm Wilma Puts 2005 in Record Book

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