o If Wilma makes a grazing landfall over the northern tip of Yucatan (as the NHC forecast is currently predicting), Wilma will move into the Gulf of Mexico and curve to the northwest. This possibility opens up the U.S. Gulf coast to the potential for a landfall mid-to-late next week. Given that a low pressure system currently over California is forecasted to shift eastward, pushing Wilma ahead of it, this makes a landfall along the coast of Alabama to Florida much more likely than a landfall from Louisiana to Texas.

Intensity predictions are notoriously hard to make over any long period. However, we can make some basic predictions:

1.) If Wilma takes the more southerly track towards Yucatan, it will likely reach strong tropical storm or weak hurricane status before landfall.

2.) If Wilma takes the more northerly track towards the tip of Yucatan, Wilma will pass over the warm waters of the Gulf, which could allow Wilma to intensify to a major hurricane (Cat 3). The waters in the Gulf are warm but not as warm as earlier in the season when they played a large role in making Katrina and Rita two of the most intense hurricanes on record. If Wilma does take this route into the Gulf, a landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast becomes a virtual certainty but, as the waters along Gulf Coast itself are cooler than the main Gulf, landfall as a major hurricane is less likely.

This document was reprinted with permission. More information is available at www.carvill.com.

Disclaimer

ReAdvisory provides this report for general information only. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should be understood to be reinsurance information only. ReAdvisory makes no representations or warranties, express or implied. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. ReAdvisory undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any current or forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, research, future events, or otherwise.