By Dr. Steve Smith, VP of ReAdvisory

Wilma formed west of Jamaica over the weekend. Wilma is the 21st named storm of the season, which means 2005 is level with 1933 as the most active season on record. Any storms that form subsequent to Wilma (a reasonable expectation) will be named from the Greek alphabet.

So far, Wilma's movement has been slowly westward as the steering currents are light over the Caribbean Sea. Wilma's forecasted track has been erratic over the last few forecast cycles as the models struggle to come to grips with the atmospheric conditions. The models continue to remain inconsistent with the NHC having an unusually low confidence in the models three-to-five days out. However, over the next few days, we expect a slow westward drift, which may lead Wilma to a landfall along Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Beyond three-to-five days, the forecasts become more speculative:

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