Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin again will be above average this year, according to forecasting teams from North America and the United Kingdom.

“Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be about 160 percent of average in 2005,” said Mark Saunders and Adam Lea, with Tropical Storm Risk.com, based at University College London. The team is predicting an 80 percent probability that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average and a 70 percent chance of an above average number of storms making landfall in the United States.

The factors underlying TSR's prediction are the forecast July through September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August through September sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. The former influences cyclonic vorticity, a measure of the spin of air mass, in the main hurricane track region, while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms. “At present, TSR anticipates both predictors' having a moderate enhancing effect on activity,” the researchers concluded.

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