Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin again will be aboveaverage this year, according to forecasting teams from NorthAmerica and the United Kingdom.

“Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basinand U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to beabout 160 percent of average in 2005,” said Mark Saunders and AdamLea, with Tropical Storm Risk.com, based at University CollegeLondon. The team is predicting an 80 percent probability that the2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average and a 70percent chance of an above average number of storms making landfallin the United States.

The factors underlying TSR's prediction are the forecast Julythrough September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropicalNorth Atlantic, and the forecast August through September seasurface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. The formerinfluences cyclonic vorticity, a measure of the spin of air mass,in the main hurricane track region, while the latter provides heatand moisture to power incipient storms. “At present, TSRanticipates both predictors' having a moderate enhancing effect onactivity,” the researchers concluded.