o An 81 percent probability of above-normal U.S. landfall hurricane activity; a 15 percent likelihood of a near-normal season; and only a 4 percent chance of a below-normal season.

o Five tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes.

o Two tropical storm hits, including one hurricane, on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles.

TSR said the two main climate factors influencing its forecast for 2006 are the anticipated speed of the trade winds which blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea through August and September, and the temperature of the sea waters between West Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop.

Trade winds influence the spinning up of storms, while the sea temperature provides heat and moisture to power them.

TSR said it anticipates weaker than normal trades and warmer than normal waters in 2006, conditions that together favor an above-average hurricane season.

Professor Mark Saunders, the TSR lead scientist and head of Seasonal Forecasting and Meteorological Hazards at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London, urged governments and individual citizens to be vigilant about the weather.

"We are witnessing record levels of Atlantic and U.S. [landfall] hurricane activity," he said in a statement. "The years 2003 to 2005 have seen the highest three-year total number of U.S. hurricane landfalls (11) since 1900 and the highest three-year total number of North Atlantic hurricanes (30) since reliable records began in 1950.

"Based on current and projected climate signals this high activity looks set to continue through 2006.

"Despite the forecast for another active hurricane season in 2006, the chance of seeing as many as five intense hurricanes in the [Mexican Gulf] (as happened in 2005) is extremely remote," he continued.

Dr. Saunders noted that no other year since 1950 has recorded more than two intense Mexican Gulf hurricanes. Thus, despite the forecast, we are most unlikely to see a repeat of the Gulf devastation witnessed in 2005."

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.