Firm Bets Its Hurricane Model Beats All

By Daniel Hays

NU Online News Service, April 29, 2:29 p.m. EDT?A California-based catastrophe modeling firm is telling insurers it will give them a loss analysis for free if a test comparison doesn't prove their Florida hurricane program beats the competition.

Richard Clinton, president of Oakland-based EQUECAT, said at this point the offer is too new for him to get feedback, "people are digesting it."

The proposal is being offered to property-casualty writers with Florida commercial or residential property premium of $30 million or more.

Mr. Clinton explained how the test will work. An interested insurer will send EQUECAT a data file of all the property risks it insures in Florida. The modeler will analyze the amount of loss it believes would have been created by Hurricane Charley in Florida Aug. 13, 2004.

The insurer, he said, will observe how the EQUECAT model performed against the existing model. If the current product outperformed the model, "We'll say no charge," he said. "If we do better we will ask them to pay a nominal fee that will be credited against any future license fees if they make a switch."

He said the EQUECAT model's immediate post-landfall assessment of damage can show pockets where an insurer's greatest loss would be. Mr. Clinton said among the model's uses for carriers is making assessments of whether to put reinsurers or stockholders on notice and determining how many adjusters are needed on the scene.

Mr. Clinton said the firm decided to make the offer after hearing complaints voiced by participants at a Reinsurance Association of America catastrophe seminar last February. Those voicing concerns were disappointed because, "our competitors were significantly low with their estimates," he noted.

"We think that insurers deserve better model performance than they experienced in 2004 and we'll put our money where our mouth is to prove that EQECAT is a better model," Mr. Clinton said, adding that, "The 2005 hurricane season is almost here, so it is a perfect time for insurers to know their exposure."

EQUECAT, a subsidiary of ABS Consulting, offers 167 natural hazard software models for 88 countries.

Information about the EQECAT Hurricane Model Challenge is available at (510) 817-3101 or Solutions@EQECAT.com.

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Firm Bets Its Hurricane Model Beats All

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