P-C Industry Was Ready For Hurricanes: E&Y Says

NU Online News Service, Nov. 9, 4:30 p.m. EST? The U.S. property-casualty insurance industry may have its shortcomings, but its critics can't say the sector was not ready for this year's unprecedented hurricane season, according to an industry expert.[@@]

In fact, the industry was so well-prepared this hurricane season that despite facing four catastrophes all of which now ranks in the 10-most costly U.S. catastrophes ever, there won't be any structural changes forthcoming in the sector, according to Ernst & Young's global director of insurance services Peter Porrino.

Mr. Porrino offered his assessment of the p-c industry today in New York at his firm's annual press briefing on the state of the financial services industry.

Mr. Porrino noted that there is no mistaking the enormity of the hurricanes that struck large parts of Florida and Southeastern United States this past August and September. "With these four hurricanes, it's a heck of a lot of money that went out the door. But we don't see any structural changes happening now," he said.

According to preliminary estimates offered by Jersey City, N.J.-based ISO and Moody's Investor Service in New York, Hurricane Charley is now the fourth-most costly U.S. catastrophe, with an estimated $6.8 billion insured losses.

Hurricane Ivan is ranked fifth-most expensive of all time, with $6.5 billion insured losses. Hurricane Jeanne is ranked seventh, with $4.7 billion in insured losses, while Hurricane Frances comes in at eighth, with $4.5 billion in estimated insured losses.

Altogether, these four events this year bring to the p-c industry a total preliminary estimate loss of $20-to-21 billion.

But, the industry was well-prepared for such hurricanes, Mr. Porrino said. He pointed to much more sophisticated catastrophe simulation modeling, as well as more policy exclusions and restrictions and increased deductibles.

He also credited the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund with helping a lot of insurers "get up and get going in Florida" in the wake of this year's devastating hurricanes.

And generally, he emphasized, companies are doing a better job avoiding some of the higher catastrophe-prone regions. "A lot of money went out the door, but companies will replenish that given the profitability of the industry," he said.

Additionally, Mr. Porrino also offered assessments on various other industry developments during today's briefing.

? Return-on-equity is still high but will come down to more normal level: "At upwards of 15 percent, ROEs certainly look better than the anemic levels that they were a couple of years ago," Mr. Porrino commented. But he said they "probably will not remain there forever." He speculated that ROEs may stay at the 15-percent level for another year or two, "but then will likely start to come down to the more-normal range of 10-to-11 percent."

? Commercial pricing will fall at an alarming rate despite hurricanes: "If you look at the commercial property business, the rate change is in the negative territory," Mr. Porrino said. "The hurricanes are not fundamentally going to change that. They may decelerate the rate of decline, but that would be about it."

? Personal-lines pricing is also going down: Mr. Porrino pointed to State Farm rate filings over the last three years to make his point that personal-lines rates are fast declining.

"If you look at State Farm rate filings over the last three years by state and by rate changes, you see that every one is positive until last year," he said.

Mr. Porrino said that the "switch got thrown" from the beginning of 2004, "and from then on virtually every rate filing is negative." He said one reason the personal-lines rates are falling is that profits remain at a reasonably-robust level.

Some personal-lines carriers are showing low- 80s combined ratios. "Those are stellar, stellar combined ratios," Mr. Porrino said. Pointing back to State Farm, he said that the company appears to have concluded that "this is the right time to go out and grab some market share." So State Farm has filed for "some reasonably significant rate decreases in a lot of states this year," Mr. Porrino observed.

? Merger and acquisition activity is non-existent, but that will change, eventually: "I just have a couple of words on M&A activity: there is nothing happening," said Mr. Porrino.

In 2003, he noted, there was one deal, "obviously The St. Paul Travelers merger." But he said that transaction was unique because of the knowledge of the parties involved, and even that deal and the resulting combined entity "have not performed all that well."

This year, he said, what's happening is the same old story: "a lot of transactions driven by the selling need, a lot of exiting non-core, a lot of renewal-rights transactions."

One reason there haven't been more mergers in the sector, he said, is because of the control that brokerages exert on insurance buyers. "To the extent that the broker controls buyers of the product, what are you buying when you go buy another insurance company? But I think the balance of power may shift slightly in the future and that may enable more consolidation than what we've seen in the past."

Mr. Porrino speculated that at some point in time consolidation has to happen in the commercial P-C space because it's too fragmented. "The top 20 companies control 15 percent of the market. There is no financial service industry anything like it. So at some point in time, it has to consolidate," he said.

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P-C Industry Was Ready For Hurricanes: E&Y Says

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