Insurers' Storms Loss May Hit $32 billion: Swiss Re

By Michael Ha

NU Online News Service, Oct. 8, 4:28 p.m. EDT?Insurance industry losses from four hurricanes that devastated parts of Florida and other Southeastern states could go $12 billion above some estimates and hit $32 billion, a Swiss Re underwriter said yesterday.[@@]

Meanwhile, GE Insurance Solutions reported today that its pretax loss from the hurricanes was $515 million, or $335 million after tax. Swiss Re, including Japan's Typhoon Songda, said its loss is $750 million.

The $32 billion industry loss figure was offered by Matthias Weber, chief property underwriter and senior vice president for U.S. Direct Business unit of Swiss Reinsurance Company, who spoke at a Swiss Re-sponsored roundtable discussion yesterday in New York.

"I am not saying the total insured losses are for sure going to be greater than $30 billion. However, it wouldn't surprise me if they reach $32 billion," Mr. Weber remarked.

From the insured-loss perspective, Mr. Weber said the best-known catastrophe-modeling firms are predicting a range of 20-to-25 billion dollars of insured loss from this quartet of hurricanes. But he told roundtable participants there are a number of people who think the final tally is going to be significantly higher.

"There seems to be a general expectation that eventual insured losses might be higher than the ranges that have been referred to recently," according to Mr. Weber.

There are several factors that can contribute to higher insured losses. For one, none of the CAT modeling firms has taken into account mold damage.

"What does it take for mold to be created? It takes high temperature, high humidity, wet walls and nobody around to take care of them"?like what's been happening in Florida, Mr. Weber said. "The CAT modeling firms do a very good job modeling losses and loss estimates, but they can do only so much."

Mr. Weber also pointed to the "post-loss inflation" factor. In the hurricane-affected areas, he explained, there are inflationary pressures?which means the repair costs after hurricanes go up. "These additions also push loss numbers up," he said.

Further, CAT models don't take into account loss-adjustment expenses, "but we as an industry pay for those expenses," Mr. Weber said.

Commenting on the scope of this year's hurricane damage, Mr. Weber noted that "we are talking about 2 million claims." For comparison, he said, Hurricane Andrew only had 700,000 claims.

Mr. Weber also remarked that there are 15,000 loss adjusters who are working on these claims. "If you do the math, it works out to be something like 140 claims per loss adjuster. Can you imagine? Clearly, these losses are not going to be adjusted overnight. Each adjuster cannot adjust more than two or three losses per day," he said.

"We had four hurricanes in a row affecting a single state within 40 days?this has not happened since 1886," Mr. Weber observed. "The last time four hurricanes struck a single state in such a timeframe was in 1886 in Texas. So this year, we have truly seen a once-in-one-hundred-years event."

GE Insurance Solutions said as a result of the hurricanes its net income will sustain a $39 million third-quarter loss. For GE's entire insurance sector the net declined 80 percent to $120 million.

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Insurers' Storms Loss May Hit $32 billion: Swiss Re

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