Swiss Re: Economists U.S. Economy Health Improving

By Michael Ha

NU Online News Service, May 20, 4:14 p.m. EDT? A survey of economists has found a growing consensus that the U.S. economy is likely to strengthen and the danger of a stock-market crash is diminishing, even as inflation worries increase.[@@]

The Zurich-based Swiss Reinsurance Company "Economic Risk Survey" found that 50 economists polled gave a 72 percent probability for the United States economy growing at a rate higher than 3 percent this year.

The economists in the survey also said it's less likely now for the United States and Europe to suffer a stock-market crash, compared with the situation in the 2003 fourth quarter.

Those polled indicated that the probability this year of a stock market crash?commonly defined as a 25 percent fall in a major stock market index?is around 11 percent both for the United States and Europe.

During the Swiss Re "Economic Risk Survey" conducted last October, respondents said the stock-market crash probability was 13 percent for the United States and 16 percent for Europe.

"The risk of a major economic disruption is waning as the U.S. and Euro-zone economies continue to strengthen," said Thomas Hess, who leads the Swiss Re's Economic Research unit.

The survey also found economists are now less concerned about the potential for significant devaluation of the U.S. dollar against the euro. The economists polled indicated that the chance of the U.S. dollar falling by 60 percent against the euro over the next three years is 9 percent, lower than 12 percent indicated during last October's survey.

On the other hand, the economists said it is now more likely that the United States will experience a medium-term consumer price index inflation of at least 4.5 percent over the next three years. The economists said the likelihood of such inflation is now 8 percent, up from 6 percent who saw it that way in October.

A silver lining for insurers, that accompanies an increased likelihood of inflation, is that expected interest rate hikes will allow for more opportunities in higher investment income. Mr. Hess noted that the risk of higher U.S. medium-term inflation and, hence, higher interest rates is rising?"providing better investment opportunities for insurers over the next couple of years."

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Swiss Re: Economists U.S. Economy Health Improving

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