P-C Rates To Drop Later This Summer: MarketScout

By Michael Ha

NU Online News Service, May 7, 4:08 p.m. EDT?An online insurance quote provider for agents said it is now "quite certain" overall property-casualty premium rates will fall later this summer. [@@]

The decline will be driven, Marketscout said, by insurers' healthier quarterly earnings and the likelihood of higher interest rates, which will boost insurers' investment income.

The firm also reported that for now, its monthly "Market Barometer" data has shown a 9 percent p-c rate hike for April?on the same level as March and February but down slightly from January, when the rate increase came in at 11 percent.

Marketscout, based in Dallas, harvests its data from 60 insurance companies representing over 300 different industries and coverage classifications, as well as 50,000 industry users.

Commenting on the firm's prediction on the premium rates' downward movement later this summer, Marketscout Chief Executive Richard Kerr explained that the forecast is based on the insurers' strong 2004 first-quarter earnings results so far and the likelihood of interest rates moving upward this year.

"In April, the Wall Street Journal captioned articles 'American International Profit Increased 36% in First Quarter' and 'Lloyd's Pretax Profit Takes Off,'" observed Mr. Kerr, adding that other insurers are posting bigger profits as well. The "trickle-down effect" from these bigger profit margins will still take several months to filter into the market as a whole, Mr. Kerr forecast?but within a few months "the market will begin to adjust and rates will come down."

Mr. Kerr emphasized that some major insurers may be less apt to tamper with their pricing, but many will take a more aggressive stance, trying to grab additional market shares through lower premiums rates.

Furthermore, he said, as interest rates move upward, there is a much greater probability that insurers will cut premium rates as they see improved income from their investments. (The likelihood of Federal Reserve raising its benchmark short-term rate this summer got a big boost today, when the Labor Department reported robust job growth for April. Federal Reserve will have its next meeting at the end of June.)

"We are quite certain premium rates will be adjusted downward later this summer," Mr. Kerr predicted.

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P-C Rates To Drop Later This Summer: MarketScout

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