Group Sees Two Hurricanes Hitting U.S. Coast

NU Online News Service, Feb. 5, 4:27 p.m. EST ?

The February forecast for 2004 Atlantic hurricane activity was issued by Tropical Storm Risk, the London-based operation led by Benfield Hazard Research Centre of University College, which describes itself as a consortium including climate physicists, meteorologists and statisticians, who are experts in insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting.

TSR said it has slightly increased its forecast since January and now anticipates a 72 percent likelihood of an above-average season, a 21 percent probability of a near-normal season, and only a 7 percent chance of a below-normal season.

Four tropical storm strikes on the United States in 2004 are anticipated, of which two will be hurricanes. For the Atlantic basin as a whole, TSR expects 14 tropical storms, with eight of these being hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

TSR said the two main climate factors influencing its hurricane forecast for 2004 are the expected values in August and September 2004 for (a) the speed of the trade winds which blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and (b) the temperature of the sea waters between West Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop.

The forecasters said they anticipate weaker than normal trades and warmer than normal waters in 2004--both are conditions which favor an above-average hurricane season.

The latest forecast spans the North Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to Nov. 30 and is based on data available through the end of January 2004.

Further information on the TSR forecast methodology is available through the TSR Web site, www.tropicalstormrisk.com.

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