Moody's: Calif. Fire Loss May Hit $3.5 Billion

By Mark E. Ruquet

NU Online News Service, Nov. 12, 4:20 p.m. EST?Two rating agencies said they expect losses from the California wildfires to exceed the $2 billion estimate previously placed on them, while a California insurance trade group said it has no reason to change earlier estimates.

Both New York City-based rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's increased estimates from earlier figures of $2 billion in losses.

S&P said it estimates losses would come to about $2.5 billion, while Moody?s put the figure between $2.5-to-$3.5 billion.

Pete Moraga, a spokesperson for the Insurance Information Network of California, said the association is sticking to its estimate of $2 billion in losses.

He acknowledged that the figure is subject to change and that it is preliminary, but, he said, there is not enough information available at this time to make any changes to the estimate. Mr. Moraga said adjusters are just now getting into many sections where the fires swept through and that it is simply too early to tell if the figure will go higher.

Currently, the association is reporting that 7,924 claims have been filed. That number is expected to rise.

Both agencies said they did not expect any ratings impact on personal lines insurers from the losses. S&P said in a statement that it did not expect the fires to "undermine insurance ratings" or prompt an increase in premium pricing as a result of the fires.

Moody's said it did not expect the fires to have an impact on the industry as a whole, but it did expect some insurers to experience some "near-term earnings disruptions."

Moody's went on to say that it felt catastrophe losses for this year would be "significantly higher" than in the past because of the combined effect of the California wildfires, Hurricane Isabel and widespread Midwestern storm losses earlier in the year. Despite the effect this will have on earnings, the rating service went on to say, pricing is expected to moderate due to competition and regulatory pressure.

Moody's added a cautionary note about some California companies, saying that their earnings may remain inadequate in the face of regulations rolling back rates and not allowing adequate pricing.

Special Reports /

Moody's: Calif. Fire Loss May Hit $3.5 Billion

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