Stocks Had Worst Month Since Aug. '99
NU Stock Analyst

It was not a merry month of May for investors in insurance stocks. It was quite the opposite, in fact. I found it necessary to check monthly prices back to August 1999 to find a month with more losers.

Back in August 1999, Hurricane Floyd, one of the most powerful tropical storms of all time, came out of Africa and headed toward the Florida coast. Investors panicked and dumped insurance stocks. Of the 141 stocks priced at the end of August 1999, there were 110 declines and only 30 advances. The average decline was a startling 6.93 percent. The ratio of winners to losers approached one-to-four!

In May 2002, despite having no “Floyd” in sight, of the 114 stocks priced there were 80 declines and 34 advances. The average retreat was 3.86 percent.

There are almost always good groups and advancing individual issues, even in down months. In May it was the broker group that led the way with an advance of 4.60 percent. Hilb, Rogal & Hamilton was best with a 12.04 percent gain to $41.21. Willis Group Holdings Ltd. was close behind after an 11.21 percent advance to $32.53. People must be betting that with prices soaring, broker revenue will rise as well.

Six of the eight specialists ended in the plus column, leading the group to a modest 2.13 percent gain. There were interesting cross-currents. Horace Mann was sold down 15.03 percent to $20.35. At the same time, Navigators Group was bid up 15.07 percent to $26.35.

The multilines were down 3.30 percent, with eight of the nine issues falling. Only recent IPO, Prudential Financial Inc., registered a good gain with a 7.45 percent surge to $34.49.

The dozen reinsurers lost 4.27 percent, but the group attracted attention with two advancing issues. These were Transatlantic Holding and Arch Capital Group, Ltd. Transatlantic moved up 3.19 percent to $87.05. Arch Capital edged ahead a minor 1.78 percent to $29.70.

Forty-two property-casualty stocks were down 4.24 percent, with 13 winners and 29 losers. There were a number of conspicuous losers, but just one double-digit winner–Meadowbrook, which came to life with 37.50 percent jump to $3.25. The company develops and manages alternative risk management programs–another good bet in this hard market.

Twenty-seven life and health stocks were almost, but not entirely, bereft of good news. There were six advances and 21 declines. The group was off a hefty 6.68 percent. Recent IPO Principal Financial Group was best in the L&H sector with a 9.35 percent surge to $30.40.

The only other life-health stock to generate a mentionable gain was AFLAC, which gained 7.56 percent to $32.16. The company is the largest provider of supplemental health coverages, here and in Japan. The company has scooped the rest of the industry with a duck which parades around quacking “AFLAC!—AFLAC!—AFLAC-C-CK!

Thomas K. Meakin is affiliated with LIM Systems International in Voorhees, N.J. Stock results are supplied by The Firemark Group in Morristown, N.J.

Reproduced from National Underwriter Property & Casualty/Risk & Benefits Management Edition, July 1, 2002. Copyright 2002 by The National Underwriter Company in the serial publication. All rights reserved.Copyright in this article as an independent work may be held by the author.

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Stocks Had Worst Month Since Aug. '99

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