Hurricane Forecast Slightly Lower

By Mark E. Ruquet

NU Online News Service, June 3, 12:46 p.m. EST ? Weather forecasters have reduced their yearly estimate of the number of hurricanes that will be stirred up in the Atlantic, but say the probability of a major storm hitting the U.S. is still above average.

Atmospheric scientist William Gray and his team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University decreased by one the number of hurricane-related storms for the hurricane season running from June 1 to Nov. 30.

For the 2002 season, Mr. Gray and his team predict 11 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, which have sustained winds of 111 mph or more. This is a reduction from April's forecast of 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Cooler than expected sea surface temperatures through April and May led to the change in the forecast, researchers said.

In a statement, Mr. Gray said the hurricane season is still expected to be active. Despite the revision, he said hurricane activity in the Atlantic is expected to be average, and the probability of one or more major hurricanes hitting the U.S. remains above average.

He went on to say that the U.S. has been "very fortunate" over the past seven years in only seeing three major hurricanes make landfall. With the level of growth along the southeast coastline, especially Florida, Mr. Gray noted "we must be prepared?for?levels of destruction many, many times greater than anything that has been witnessed in the past 35 years."

The Colorado team now forecasts a 63 percent probability of one or more major hurricanes hitting the U.S. coastline during this season.

This prediction compares with 75 percent in April's forecast. They said there is a 42 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast and Florida, and a 35 percent chance of one hitting the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

The April forecast was 57 percent for the East Coast and Florida, and 43 percent for the Gulf of Mexico.

The team will issue its last seasonal update on Aug. 7, at the beginning of the most active portion of the season. There will also be separate monthly forecasts for August and September.

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Hurricane Forecast Slightly Lower

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