Over the past few months, various agencies have started developing their predictions for the hurricane season, which begins in June. While hurricanes are easier to predict than tornadoes, there are no guarantees; early predictions often change as we get into the season and the weather shifts.
What factors determine whether any given year will be an active hurricane season or a quiet one? In general, when the El Niño weather pattern is stronger, the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter. When La Niña is the prevailing pattern, the season is busier. While El Niño directs storms away from land, the warmer temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean associated with La Niña tend to increase the strength of hurricanes, which enables the storms to counteract the effects of El Niño.
This year, the Atlantic Ocean is cooler, and La Niña has faded. StormGeo indicates that there is only a 34% chance of La Niña redeveloping over the summer. The Weather Channel indicates that temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are running average or cooler than average and substantially cooler than last year. Predictions so far for this year can be found in the following chart:
| StormGeo | Co. State Univ. | Univ. of Az. | Weather Bell Analytics | Accuweather | Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) | NC State Univ. | AG2/TWC | Annual Ave. | |
| Named Storms | 17 | 17 Revised to 16 on 7/10 | 16 | 15-19 | 13-18 | 16 | 12-15 | 19 | 14 |
| Hurricanes | 8 | 9 Revised to 8 on 7/10 | 8 | 7-9 | 7-10 | 8 | 6-8 | 9 | 7 |
| Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3 and above- winds 111 mph or higher) | 4 | 4 Revised to 3 on 8/6 | 3 | 3 | 3-5 | 4 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 |
Editor's Note:
As of May 23, TSR has modified their predictions; instead of 15 storms they are now predicting 16 storms, instead of 7, 8 hurricanes, and instead of 3, now 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA announced its predictions on May 27, with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.
Update 7/10/2025:
Colorado State has modified its prediction for this year, predicting 16 storms, 8 of which will become hurricanes and 4 which will be cat 3 or higher.
Update 8/7/2025:
Colorado State has again modified its prediction for this year with 16 named storms, 8 becoming hurricanes, and 3 will be cat 3 or higher.
NOAA has also updated its predictions, calling for 13-18 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes.
The names for this year’s storms are as follows:
Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy.
The list of names is rotated on a six year basis, so these names were last used in 2019. Hurricane names are retired from use permanently when a hurricane is considered so deadly or costly that reusing the name would be considered insensitive. For example, the name Andrew will not be re-used due to its devastating effects on Homestead, FL in 1992, which destroyed more than 25,000 homes, leaving 160,000 residents homeless.
Knowing the potential for hurricanes and their devastating effects highlights the importance of preparedness. There are a number of steps people can take to be prepared; the first and arguably the most effective is purchasing flood insurance. There is, however, a 30-day waiting period for policies from the NFIP, so coverage can’t be bought right before a storm. There are a few private providers, with shorter waiting periods, but most flood policies are still purchased through NFIP. While the purchase of flood insurance is required in the areas most susceptible to flood, in the last several years hurricanes have been found to move much further inland than previously thought possible; in any case, the rains generated by hurricanes have flooded areas that had not yet been designated by the NFIP as flood zones requiring coverage. Many other areas are susceptible to flooding from snow melt and rainwater runoff. In these cases, the insurance offered by private carriers should be proactively considered.
Ensuring that the property can weather a storm or any other natural phenomenon is also important. In areas prone to flooding, keeping items off the floor prevents damage to personal property. Having a place to store outside equipment such as patio furniture and grills ensures that they won’t get blown around or damaged by the wind. Having a home inventory is important; there are many apps that make it easier to construct, and even allow for adding photos. A home inventory also helps an insured know that their coverage is set at the correct amount. Many people underestimate both the value of their personal property and just how much property they have.
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Christine G. Barlow, CPCU
Christine G. Barlow, CPCU, is Executive Editor of FC&S Expert Coverage Interpretation, a division of National Underwriter Company and ALM. Christine has over thirty years’ experience in the insurance industry, beginning as a claims adjuster then working as an underwriter and underwriting supervisor handling personal lines. Christine regularly presents and moderates webinars on a variety of topics and is an experienced presenter.