Over the past few months, various agencies have started developing their predictions for the hurricane season, which begins in June. While hurricanes are easier to predict than tornadoes, there are no guarantees; early predictions often change as we get into the season and the weather shifts.
What factors determine whether any given year will be an active hurricane season or a quiet one? In general, when the El Niño weather pattern is stronger, the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter. When La Niña is the prevailing pattern, the season is busier. While El Niño directs storms away from land, the warmer temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean associated with La Niña tend to increase the strength of hurricanes, which enables the storms to counteract the effects of El Niño.
This year, the Atlantic Ocean is cooler, and La Niña has faded. StormGeo indicates that there is only a 34% chance of La Niña redeveloping over the summer. The Weather Channel indicates that temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are running average or cooler than average and substantially cooler than last year. Predictions so far for this year can be found in the following chart:
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For enterprise-wide or corporate access, please contact our Sales Department at 1-800-543-0874 or email [email protected]Christine G. Barlow, CPCU
Christine G. Barlow, CPCU, is Executive Editor of FC&S Expert Coverage Interpretation, a division of National Underwriter Company and ALM. Christine has over thirty years’ experience in the insurance industry, beginning as a claims adjuster then working as an underwriter and underwriting supervisor handling personal lines. Christine regularly presents and moderates webinars on a variety of topics and is an experienced presenter.