As always, June 1 is the beginning of hurricane season. The season runs until the end of November and storms rarely start at the beginning of the season. But storms do their own thing so the start of the season indicates that it's time to consider flood insurance, mitigation efforts, and other steps to make the season as safe as possible.
Multiple agencies issue predictions every year based on weather patterns such as El Nino or La Nina and trending Atlantic Ocean temperatures. In general, when El Nino is stronger, the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter. However, when the temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are warmer hurricanes tend to be stronger and able to counteract the effects of El Nino. This year both weather effects are in play, making predictions difficult. They could cancel each other out and result in a mild year, or one could override the other. The below chart provides this year's predictions.
On July 6 Colorado State updated it's prediction, increasing the number of named storms predicted from 14 to 18, the number of hurricanes from 7 to 9, and the number of major storms from 3 to 4.
AccuWeather updated its hurricane prediction on August 2nd, revising the forecast from 11 to 15 predicted storms to 13-17 predicted storms.
On August 10, NOAA updated its prediction as well, saying the chances of an above average hurricane season is now at 60%. It's now predicting 14-21 named storms instead of 12-17, and 6 to 11 possible hurricanes instead of 5 to 9, 2 to 5 of which could be major hurricanes instead of the originally predicted 1-4. Its confidence in the new predictions is 70%.
And in case you're interested or just want to know if you might become a hurricane this year, the names for this year's storms are as follows:
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.
In preparation for the season, the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation has posted its 2023 Catastrophe Reporting Form available here. If a natural disaster causes catastrophic damage in Florida, insurers and regulated entities are required to provide claims and other relevant information to the department by using the form. Completion instructions are included with the form.
Related articles:
June 1, 2023
Christine G. Barlow, CPCU
Christine G. Barlow, CPCU, is Executive Editor of FC&S Expert Coverage Interpretation, a division of National Underwriter Company and ALM. Christine has over thirty years’ experience in the insurance industry, beginning as a claims adjuster then working as an underwriter and underwriting supervisor handling personal lines. Christine regularly presents and moderates webinars on a variety of topics and is an experienced presenter.