Today marks the beginning of this year's Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1st through November 30th. The good news for insurers is that hurricane modeling has improved over the years and produces vastly more predictive results than ever before. The bad news is that there are bound to be hurricanes that threaten human life and cause damages, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) once again predicting a busier than average hurricane season, at 60 percent chance of an above normal season. In fact, we've already seen our first named storm of the season when it formed off Bermuda on May 22nd. This makes 2021 the seventh straight year in which at least one named storm has developed in the Atlantic before the official start of the season.

Naming storms and hurricanes helps us to remember the storms, makes them easier to identify, aids in more effectively communicating and tracking the storm, and also helps people in predicted areas to stay safer when a named storm hits. The short, quick names used have been found to be quicker to communicate and less subject to error than the older, more cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods. These advantages are especially important in exchanging detailed storm information between hundreds of widely scattered stations, coastal bases, and ships at sea. Also, if there are more than one tropical storm occurring at the same time, this helps identify and communicate tracking information and warnings.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center started assigning names to Atlantic storms in the early 1950's, but now the list is generated and maintained by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The first storms were named according to a phonetic alphabet, such as Able, Baker, Charlie. So, the first hurricane of a season was always named 'Able', the second 'Baker', the third 'Charlie', and so on. In an effort to avoid the use of repetitive names, the national weather service revised the system so that all storms would be given female names. This practice mimicked the habit of naval meteorologists, who named storms after women, much as ships at sea were traditionally named for women. In 1978-1979, the system was revised to include both female and male names.

Last year was a record year for named storms, with thirty storms. Each year twenty-one names are assigned well before the season begins, and 2020 was just the second time the list of storm names was exhausted. Hopefully, this won't be the case this year as that kind of historic level is not anticipated by the NOAA. A name is assigned to a storm once it displays a rotating circular pattern and wind speed reaches 39 mile per hour (or 63 kilometers per hour). A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when wind speeds go above 74 mph (119 kph). The predictions for this year are a likely range of thirteen to twenty named storms, of which six to ten could become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes. The NOAA gives their predictions a 70 percent confidence rating.

You might think the NOAA would be running out of names to identify these storms, but they have a plan for this. World meteorologists are responsible for naming tropical storms and hurricanes, and many of us have been the brunt of jokes when our name was assigned to one of these storms. A strict procedure has been established by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization, and their website also covers predictions and probabilities as well as a vast amount of additional meteorological information. For Atlantic hurricanes, there is a list of names for each of six years, meaning that one list is repeated every sixth year. There are no storms that begin with Q, U, X, Y or Z because of a lack of usable names. Each season's storm names alternate between female and male. For a complete history and a list of retired names go to the NOAA website, About Names. For example, the names Katrina, Rita and Wilma were retired in 2005 following the devastating impact of those storms, with Katrina causing more than $1 billion in damages and nearly 2,000 lives. The names Florence and Michael were retired in 2018 for the tremendous damage and fatalities that resulted from these storms. When a name is retired, it is replaced with another name (for example, Katrina was replaced with Katia and Florence and Michael were replaced with Francine and Milton). 

Is your name on the list this year? Also, in case you were wondering, you can't request your name be assigned to a storm. The names are chosen long in advance and follow a designated pattern. 

Here's the list of the twenty-one names for the Atlantic season released by the WMO:

 

2021 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names*
Ana Henri Odette
Bill Ida Peter
Claudette Julian Rose
Danny Kate Sam
Elsa Larry Teresa
Fred Mindy Victor
Grace Nicholas Wanda
Names provided by the World Meteorological Organization
*NOAA             Be prepared: Visit hurricanes.gov and follow@NWS and @NHC_Atlantic on Twitter     May 2021

While not anticipated, in case all twenty-one names are used again this year, here's the supplemental list from the WMO: 

Adria Heath Orlanda
Braylen Isla Pax
Caridad Jacobus Ronin
Deshawn Kenzie Sophie
Emery Lucio Tayshaun
Foster  Makayla Viviana
Gemma Nolan Will

The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th to November 30th. Those list of names for 2021 are as follows:

Andres Jimena Sandra
Blanca Kevin Terry
Dolores Linda Vivian
Enrique Marty Waldo
Felicia Nora Xina
Guillermo Olaf York
Hilda Pamela Zelda
Ignacio Rick  

If you're interested, you can view those names, and names for upcoming years, at the U.S. National Hurricane Center. 

So what do hurricane names have to do with insurance? Carriers will stop writing new policies in areas within a certain range of a named storm, and won't start writing coverage again until so many hours after the storm has passed or dissipated. The naming of storms allows carriers to easily assign damages to the event, allows carriers to designate the losses as catastrophic or CAT losses, and, for insurance departments to put emergency adjuster licensing regulations in force, and sometimes extend cancellation and nonrenewals for some time after the storm. 

Once a storm has been named insurers know that a certain level of damages are likely. The insurer can begin preparing adjusters for storm duty, determining if there are enough adjusters in a location or whether additional adjusters need to be sent from other offices, what resources the carrier can provide to insureds and how best to provide information and assistance to insureds in affected areas, and start coordinating with vendors in areas likely to be impacted by the storm.