As we all know, the world has been locked down due to the coronavirus, and most places have put stay-at-home/shelter-in-place or similar orders in force. This has naturally reduced traffic in many areas significantly, depending on the nature of the orders. In an effort to assist insureds, many carriers have reduced premiums, issued refunds, or taken other measures to give insureds leeway because of the significant reduction in usage of vehicles, both personal and commercial. The assumption is that with everyone staying home, accidents naturally are fewer. In actuality, it's more complicated.

ISO has taken a look at the effects of this on the property and casualty insurance market on a short-term basis since this is still an ongoing issue. The effects may have a long-tail even after the pandemic has passed and things return to normal, and ISO will use results of its analysis in future advisory prospective loss costs.

In a circular released on May 1, ISO acknowledged that current loss costs were not developed with the current situation taken into account, as this is an unusual occurrence. ISO looked at Google Mobility Trends, which stated that as of April 11, 2020, travel to workplaces decreased by roughly 38 percent, and travel to retail and recreational areas decreased by roughly 45 percent. Estimates vary by area. Miles traveled reduced by as much as 92 percent in urban areas such as New York City and 45 percent in more rural areas such as Cedar, Missouri.