Updated 6:06 p.m. EST

(Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Irma shifted track and took aimat southwestern Florida, raising the risk of severe damage inTampa and other cities facing the Gulf of Mexico, in what could endup being the most expensive storm in U.S. history.

With top winds of 125 miles (201 kilometers) an hour, the deadlystorm is expected to strike the Florida Keys Sunday morning thenfollow the state’s Gulf Coast north, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in anadvisory around 5 p.m. New York time. At Category 3, Irma isexpected to regain strength later Saturday.

Worst case scenario for Tampa Bay

“A track near or just to the west is almost, if not, a worst-casescenario for Tampa Bay,” said Rob Miller, a meteorologist atAccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “It shoves all thewater into Tampa Bay and then shoves it right into downtownTampa.”

The storm has left at least 22 people dead and thousandshomeless across the Caribbean, and threatens to rack up as much as$200 billion in damages. Irma’s anticipated northern turn stillhasn’t occurred, raising the threat to Florida’s west coast whilepotentially sparing Miami a direct hit.

Now about 145 miles southeast of Key West, Irma could comeashore between Tampa and Fort Myers late Sunday or earlyMonday.

Hurricane-force winds for entire sourthern portion of Fla.

“A trajectory west of previous forecasts will still meanhurricane-force winds for the entire southern portion of Floridafrom coast to coast,” said Shunondo Basu, meteorologist and natgasanalyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Storm damage may worsen if Irma drifts along Florida’s westcoast without coming ashore and weakening, said David Streit, ameteorologist at Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland.On its current path, Irma may wipe out as much as 20% the citruscrop in the world’s second-largest orange juice producer.

The FloridaDivision of Emergency Management estimates that 6.3 millionresidents are under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders,Alberto Moscoso, the office’s Communications Director, said byphone. The population of the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater areais about 3 million.

Irma is one of two tropical systems churning in the region.Jose, the third major one of the 2017 season, remained aCategory 4 hurricane with sustained winds as strong as 145 milesper hour.

Katia broke apart after making landfall in Mexico, the NHC said.The country was struck by a powerful earthquake on Friday, shakingbuildings in the capital and triggering a tsunami warning.

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Damage from Irma could easily top $120 billion in Florida, withother economic losses pushing the price tag as high as $200billion, said Chuck Watson, a Savannah, Georgia-based disastermodeler with Enki Research. A worst-case strike near Tampa couldcause as much as $250 billion in damage.

“That is an outside possibility and requires the storm to hitthe right place, at the right time, at the right angle,” Watsonsaid. “But it’s a 1 in 20 chance right now.”

CoreLogic loss estimates

Preliminary estimates show losses across the Caribbean nearing $10billion. CoreLogic said. About 8.5 million properties in Floridamay be damaged by Irma’s winds and another 3.5 million arevulnerable to a storm surge.

Total losses from Katrina reached $160 billion in 2017dollars after it slammed into New Orleans in 2005.

“Wind damage is totally going to throw a wrench into theinsurance industry,” Watson said. “You are talking about companiesfailing.”

20.6 million people in Florida may lose power

About 9 million of Florida’s 20.6 million people may lose power,according to the state’s largest utility Florida Power & LightCo. Irma may also curb natural gas demand in one of the largestU.S. markets and threaten $1.2 billion worth of crops.

Related: Power outage: How homeowners can tackle power lossthis hurricane season

Officials were taking steps to ensure adequate supplies ofgasoline after residents filled up cars, boats and back-upgenerators ahead of the storm.

Irma was 175 miles south east of Key West, moving west atabout 9 mph, the hurricane center said.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from thecenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195miles, according to the NHC.

The hurricane comes just two weeks after Harvey smashed ashore in Texas, knockingoffline almost a quarter of U.S. oil refining capacity and causingwidespread power outages and flooding.

In other storm news

• Comcast Corp.’s Universal Parks and Resorts division closedthree theme parks in Orlando, and Walt Disney World Resort willshut early Saturday. U.S.
• Coast Guard Closes Tampa, St. Petersburg, Manatee Ports.
• Insured damage to the French Caribbean islands of Saint Martinand Saint Barthelemy will reach about 1.2 billion euros ($1.4billion), France’s state-owned reinsurer CCR said in a statementSaturday.

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