FIVE years ago Blockbuster Video was right on target in the home-entertainment industry, providing movies for rental on videotape and DVD. Now, however, another option seems to be at the cutting edge, as customers increasingly turn to movies that are available in an online format. Downloaded movies can be rented in a real-time, on-demand environment. Customers don't have to worry about a movie being out of stock or about paying late-return fees. This seems to be a challenge to which Blockbuster must respond for its long-term financial health.

Likewise, every business must be able to respond to market changes. Assessing market changes in advance, when possible, can increase an organization's chances of survival and prosperity. Many futurists point out that assessing the future must involve a careful study of one's current environment. Independent agents today are in the incipient stages of watching a new, still-developing phenomenon-the Internet-that can create a substantial opportunity for their future survival and profitability. It is critical for the future of agencies that they plan now to take maximum advantage of the opportunity.

We have heard for years how the Internet would change our world. First we were threatened with disintermediation, but that fear has turned out to be greatly overblown. Rather, the Internet has turned out to be a boon to agents and their clients. E-mail and instant worldwide data searches and online reservations are now at our fingertips. Free high-speed Internet connections are available in many hotel rooms and even airport waiting areas. Internet-enabled convenience is becoming an expectation. Some customers can now access their personal client information and request changes to their policies through an agency's Web site. This development is in the early stages, but more and more customers are signing on. Our agency has seen an increase from just a few clients to almost 4% of our customer base taking advantage of online access. The next horizon for agents is real-time transactions. Until now, discussion of real-time transactions has focused on the company-agency interface. For those who are not entirely familiar with the concept, a real-time transaction is one that occurs as the result of two computers (agency and company) electronically connecting and "talking" to each other. At the end of the conversation, in the purest sense, the transaction is complete, and both databases are updated with the same information.