The Colorado State University tropical meteorology project team is predicting a total of 12 additional named storms to form in the Atlantic during the rest of the hurricane season.
Of those, researchers said that they expect six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
These forecast numbers do not include Subtropical Storm Andrea and Hurricane Barry, which formed prior to August 1.
In a statement, the researchers explained that they based this forecast on 40 years of historical data that included Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
So far, the 2019 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1990, 1992, 2012, and 2014. “1992 and 2014 had below-average Atlantic hurricane activity, 1990 had near-average hurricane activity, and 2012 had above-average Atlantic hurricane activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
The team predicts that 2019 hurricane activity will be about 100 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2018’s hurricane activity was about 125 percent of the average season. The 2018 season was most notable for Hurricanes Florence and Michael, which devastated the Carolinas and portions of the Florida Panhandle, respectively.
This is the 36th year that the Colorado State University hurricane research team has issued its Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. Recently, the tropical meteorology project team expanded to include Michael Bell, associate professor in the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science, and Jhordanne Jones, graduate research assistant in the same department.
As always, the researchers cautioned coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” Mr. Bell said.
The report also included the post-July 2 probability of major hurricanes making landfall in the continental U.S. and Caribbean:
- 53 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (full-season average for the last century: 52 percent);
- 31 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (full-season average for the last century: 31 percent)
- 31 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (full-season average for the last century: 30 percent)
- 43 percent for the Caribbean (full-season average for the last century: 42 percent)
The forecast team also tracks the likelihood of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force, and major hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the coastal United States, the Caribbean and Central America through its Landfall Probability website, which provides information for all coastal states as well as 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine.
Victoria Spears
Victoria Prussen Spears is senior vice president of Meyerowitz Communications Inc., a law firm marketing communications consulting company. A graduate of Sarah Lawrence College and Brooklyn Law School, Ms. Spears was an attorney at a leading New York City law firm before joining Meyerowitz Communications. She may be contacted at [email protected].