Updated 6:07 p.m. EST

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(Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Irma continued on a collisioncourse with Miami after battering Puerto Rico and devastating achain of small Caribbean islands, as the Category 5 storm threatensto become the most expensive in U.S. history.

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The life-threatening storm is heading for a direct hit onFlorida Sunday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, which postedhurricane and storm surge watches for the peninsula and FloridaKeys Thursday. That prospect has roiled markets for everything fromorange juice to insurance and natural gas. Barclays Plc hasestimated insured losses in a worst-case scenario from the storm at$130 billion.

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Irma may reenter the Atlantic and make a second landfall Mondaysomewhere near Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, SouthCarolina.

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'Potentially catastrophic storm surges'


“The Southeast Coast of Florida, including Miami, would beexpecting potentially catastrophic storm surges Saturday night andSunday morning,” said Todd Crawford, lead meteorologist at TheWeather Company in Andover, Massachusetts. The timing of Irma’sturn on Saturday “will make the difference between a multi-billiondollar storm for Miami and the Gold Coast, and a major, but lessdevastating, weather event.”

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In the U.S., mandatory evacuations were issued for the FloridaKeys and other areas. Around 650,000 people were told to leaveMiami-Dade, the largest evacuation ever attempted in thecounty.

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Irma is one of three hurricanes churning in the Atlantic Basin.Hurricane Jose was following Irma’s path in the Atlantic, thoughit’s not expected to make landfall in Florida. In the Gulf ofMexico a third hurricane, Katia, was about 195 miles (315kilometers) northeast of Veracruz, Mexico and is forecast to comeashore early Saturday.

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Insurers extended their declines Thursday, with XL Group Ltd.dropping 4.8% and Everest Re Group Ltd. losing 5.2% as of 11:02a.m. in New York. Smaller companies that focus on the Floridamarket had steeper declines. Universal Insurance Holdings Inc.,Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. and Federated National Holding Co.are all down more than 10% since Friday.

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Irma may knock out power to almost 2 million people, curbnatural gas demand in one of the largest U.S. markets and threaten$1.2 billion worth of crops in Florida — the top U.S. growerof fresh tomatoes, oranges, green beans, cucumbers, squash andsugarcane.

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95% of homes destroyed on island of Barbuda


The storm has already damaged or destroyed about 95% of homes onthe small island of Barbuda, crippled its airport runway and brokea cellular tower in two, complicating relief efforts, PrimeMinister Gaston Browne said on national television. “It isabsolutely heart-wrenching.”

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There was massive damage on two French West Indies islands whereeight people were killed, French Interior Minister Gerard Collombsaid at a press conference in Paris Thursday. The total death tollhas risen to 10, according to the Associated Press.

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“Anguilla received the hurricane’s full blast” and theBritish Virgin Islands were also affected, U.K. Foreign OfficeMinister Alan Duncan told parliament on Thursday.

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In the U.S., mandatory evacuations were issued for the FloridaKeys and Governor Rick Scott said he expected additional evacuationorders. President Donald Trump said in a Twitter post on Wednesdaythat he is “watching hurricane closely” and his team is already inthe state.

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Irma comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Harvey smashedashore in Texas, knocking offline almost a quarter of U.S. oilrefining capacity and causing widespread power outages andflooding. Current models show Irma veering away from gas and oilplatforms off the coast of Texas and Louisiana, sparing Houstonmore devastation.

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Irma remains at Cat 5 strength


Irma’s top winds weakened slightly to 175 miles an hour from 180miles an hour previously, but the storm remained Category 5strength, the highest measure on the five-step Saffir Simpsonscale. It was about 75 miles Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, ofabout 11 a.m. New York time, according to the hurricane center.

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A direct strike on Miami at Category 4 strength could lead toinsured losses of $125 billion to $130 billion, Jay Gelb, ananalyst at Barclays, wrote in a note Tuesday. Uninsured losseswould add to that. Losses from Katrina, both insured and uninsured,reached $160 billion in 2017 dollars after it slammed into NewOrleans in 2005.

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In other storm news


Orange juice futures traded near their highest level since May.

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U.S. airlines capped ticket prices for passengers fleeing thehurricane. American Airlines Group Inc. canceled 2,185 flightsThursday through Monday and will stop all flights from Miami andthree other Florida cities Friday afternoon, the airline said in anemail statement.

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Insurers including Progressive Corp. and Allstate Corp. stoppedissuing policies on new cars in some Florida counties. The storm isposing an unprecedented threat to the catastrophe-bond market.

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Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rightsreserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten,or redistributed.

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