Updated 1:25 p.m. ET

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(Bloomberg) -- United Continental Holdings Inc. is likelyto take at least a $265 million financial hit from Hurricane Harvey because of the carrier’s reliance onHouston as one of its biggest hubs, an airline analyst said.

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The third-largest U.S. carrier’s seat count will fall anestimated 1.5% in the current quarter because of the storm, withlittle opportunity to recoup lost sales, Helane Becker of Cowen& Co. said in a report Tuesday. Houston’s GeorgeBush Intercontinental Airport is one of United’s largest hubs,accounting for about 17% of the airline’s capacity.

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Related: Next wave: Harvey threatens Louisiana with floodingafter crippling Houston

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More troubling than Hurricane Ike in 2008


The projected losses would more than double the $125 million blowDelta Air Lines Inc. suffered when it canceled about 4,000 flightsafter April storms in Atlanta. Harvey will probably also prove moretroubling than Hurricane Ike in 2008, which cost ContinentalAirlines $50 million two years before it merged with United, Beckersaid.

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Harvey “seems more powerful and impactful,” she said in hernote. Sandy, the storm that hit New York in 2012, “is probably thebest comp, given the impact lingered beyond just the initialairport closings. After the airports opened, there was rebuildingto be done, and people just didn’t travel for a while.”

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United hasn’t issued guidance to investors about the storm’simpact yet, according to the airline.

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“Our focus right now is on resuming operations out of Houstonand helping our customers and employees,” said United spokeswomanMegan McCarthy.

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United fell less than 1% to $62.99 at 10:57 a.m. in New Yorkafter a similar drop Monday. The shares tumbled 13% this yearthrough Monday, more than twice the decline of Delta and threetimes the slide of American Airlines Group Inc.

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Southwest & Spirit Airlines


Southwest Airlines Co. will probably take a $77 million hit in thethird quarter because of its major presence at Houston’s William P.Hobby airport, Becker said. Discounter Spirit Airlines Inc. is inline for $11 million in storm-related losses, she said.

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The total blow adds up to $353 million for the three airlines,assuming the airports reopen Aug. 31. Intercontinental is expected be reopen no sooner thanthe middle of that day, while Hobby may reopen Wednesday, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.

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A computer outage last year led to a $150 million hitfor Delta.

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Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rightsreserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten,or redistributed.

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