If 2016 could be called "The Year of the Unexpected" for so manyreasons, thus far one could call 2017 "The Year of the WildCard."

Investment returns, which have proven dismal for so long, couldsee a comeback over the next few years if President Trump's penchant for deregulation and"unshackling" big business becomes a reality.

It's getting hard to remember a time when returns were positive:The insurance industry has experienced a significant decline in itsnet investment income, which dropped from $31.6 billion in early2015 to $26.5 billion in the first half of 2016.

According to Ernst & Young's 2017 U.S. Property-Casualty Outlook, only amoderate 2.1 percent economic growth had been forecast, but nowsome analysts believe that Trump's intention to cut taxes andincrease infrastructure spending could have an even more positiveimpact, helping increase growth and long-term interest rates.Still, some remain cautious: Institutions such as Bank of Americahave cut their growth outlooks for 2017. Bank of America reducedits from 2.1 percent to 1.8 percent, and Munich Re predicts a decline in premium growth from 4percent to 1.5 percent.

Strategic acquisitions

Merger-and-acquisition activity will, of course, continue thisyear as P&C carriers look to make strategic acquisitions toachieve scale and leverage, but also expertise in surplus lines.Carriers seem to have come around to the fact that the real organicgrowth they covet has been happening in the E&S sector for sometime now, and they're looking to grab themselves a piece of thataction.

One need look no further than Liberty Mutual's $3 billion purchase ofIronshore to illustrate how a major P&C player made a smartinvestment to expand its specialty lines business.

As we note in our cover feature this month, cyber security will also continue to be a majorissue in 2017. Don't be surprised to see cyber attacks increasein frequency as well as severity, and more than one insurer I spokewith for that story confided that they're concerned aboutaggregated policies that could all trigger at once. If that shouldhappen — if "the big one" should hit this year and truly put cyberinsurance on the map, expect rates to jump as carriers continue tomitigate (and get their head around) the myriad, ever-changingrisks they're writing.

With both frequency and severity of claims continuing toaccelerate in both personal and commercial auto, insurers areexpected to raise premiums. Gas prices are forecasted to remainlower than they have been in years, and the number of miles drivenwill continue to rise. In the workers' comp world, Trump's electioneased the minds of those who might have anticipated greater federaloversight of that industry under another Democraticadministration.

Need for new talent, InsurTech, disruption

There's also the small matter of filling the vacancies that will be left by aprojected 70,000 retirees from the P&C business this yearalone. It's an issue that, sadly, much of the industry remainshopeful that someone else will do something about, andthat young talent will magically become attracted to the insurancebusiness. Look for this to grow into a larger problem over the nextfew years, and we'll continue to beat the drum over this seriousissue.

An additional trend worth watching: the number of P&Ccarriers forming partnerships with InsurTech startups and others to incorporatenew technologies in order to better serve customers — especially onthe claims front.

One new key disruptor that also warrants notice is the abilityto provide on-demand coverage. Keep an eye on insurance technologystart-up Trov, which will be rolling out on-demand insurance in2017 — enabling policyholders to activate and turn off coverage fortheir personal belongings as needed, via their cell phones.

Related: 5 top insurance tech trends for2017

In any case, odds are that the P&C industry could be in fora wild ride in 2017. We'll continue to do our best to break it alldown and make sense of the business for you as we always have, andmy team and I sincerely thank you for continuing to make us yourmost trusted source for P&C news and analysis.

If you see me at a conference this year, please come up and sayhello — I may be Irish, but I promise not to talk your ear offtoo much.

See you on the road.

Shawn Moynihan is Editor-in-Chiefof National Underwriter Property &Casualty. He can be reached at [email protected].  Opinionsexpressed in this article are the author's own.