This is not a good time to be trying to predict with accuracyhow the insurance industry will fare in the wake of the 2016elections. Much remains unknown.

One factor that will come into play is the extent to whichPresident-elect Donald Trump differs on some specific issues fromthe Republican Congress. Usually, when the same party holds thepresidency and majorities in both houses of Congress, the pictureis clear. This time, Trump's inexperience in the political arenamakes the insurance industry's future uncertain.

An altered landscape

Controlling both houses of Congress, Republicans are likely toconcentrate on reducing regulations, cutting taxes and generallypursuing business-friendly policies that promote economic growth.Trump, a businessman, can be expected to support these broadgoals.

Under this rubric, an issue such as tax reform should be ano-brainer. Another area in which change is likely to proceedsmoothly is the effort to roll back portions of the Wall StreetReform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank).

The National Association ofProfessional Insurance Agents (PIA) supports such a rollback,as Dodd-Frank has given too much power to federal entities toregulate insurance companies; this excessive federal involvementwas on display particularly with its creation of the FederalInsurance Office, which the PIA opposes. Hopefully, the eliminationof the FIO would be included in any roll-back of Dodd-Frank — buthere's where things get more complicated.

A Dodd-Frank rollback bill, the Financial Creating Hope and Opportunity forInvestors, Consumers and Entrepreneurs Act (H.R. 5983), waspassed by the House Financial Services Committee this year. Butburied in it was language that bolstered rather than reduced thefederal oversight of insurance. The provision would create a newfederal office in the Treasury Department called the Office of theIndependent Insurance Advocate. That office would merge with theFIO. Rather than being headed by an employee hired by Treasury — asis the case with the FIO — the independent insurance advocate wouldbe a presidential appointee, subject to Senate approval, with asix-year term. The bill authorizes the Independent InsuranceAdvocate "to employ attorneys, analysts, economists and otheremployees as may be deemed necessary" to assist the office incarrying out its duties and functions.

All bills that have been introduced but not passed will diebefore the 115th Congress convenes in January 2017. The FinancialCHOICE Act is likely to be reintroduced, either in its current formor an altered one. As a staunch supporter of state insuranceregulation and opponent of federal insurance regulation, PIA willremain vigilant in its efforts to ensure that no new paths to thefederal regulation of insurance are created as part of anyDodd-Frank rollback.

The National Flood Insurance Program is up forreauthorization on Sept. 30. Efforts are underway to secure afive-year reauthorization, which PIA supports. President-electTrump has yet to comment on the program.

Related: PIA calls for repeal of Federal InsuranceOffice

There's widespread bipartisan support to the "Cadillac Tax"provision of the Affordable Care Act, making its repeal likely.(Photo: iStock)

Obamacare: Repeal or replace?

By far, the biggest question is what will be done aboutObamacare.

Trump made repeal of the Affordable Care Act amajor plank of his campaign. Days after his election, Trumpreversed himself on completely eliminating the ACA, saying insteadhe would like to keep two of its popular features. He said that theban on insurers denying coverage to individuals who are sick"happens to be one of the strongest assets," of the law. He alsosaid he would try to keep Obamacare's provision allowing adultchildren to stay on their parents' plans until the age of 26. Trumpsaid he plans to repeal the law and replace it with new law"simultaneously," so coverage would not lapse.

One issue that straddles both tax policy and healthcare is the"Cadillac Tax," a provision in Obamacare thatimposes a 40 percent excise tax on so-called "overly generous"employer-provided health plans. Initially set to take effect in2018, Congress voted this year to delay it to 2020. Essentially,the Cadillac Tax is a back-door attempt to ration health care andraise funds to pay for the ACA. It applies a disincentive toemployers in an effort to reduce the benefits of people who alreadyhave good coverage, to help finance a lower level of coverage formore people. The Cadillac Tax is a health policy time bomb thatwould begin to destroy the private sector's system ofemployer-based coverage upon its detonation in 2020. There has beenwidespread bipartisan support for the elimination of the CadillacTax, making its repeal likely.

Another part of the ACA is a regulation that classifies producercompensation as an "administrative expense" in the calculation oftotal administrative expenses, which are limited to 15 percent or20 percent under the act. As a result, health insurance agent andbroker compensation has been slashed by health insurers in thesmall group and individual markets, leading to an exodus ofqualified, licensed agents and brokers capable of serving peoplecovered by ACA-backed plans.

Looking ahead to the 115th Congress, there is cause forcontinued but cautious optimism. The unexpected election ofPresident-elect Donald Trump will bring issues to the forefrontthat would not have been under consideration otherwise.

Ted Besesparis is senior vice president ofthe National Association of Professional InsuranceAgents in Alexandria, Va. Any opinions expressed arehis own.

Related: How long will congressional action be generallyfavorable?