(Bloomberg) -- Self-driving technology promises to prettymuch transform the auto industry as we know it.

|

It may also change the business of selling motorcycles — but in a very different way.

|

It all comes down to safety, according to Karl Viktor Schaller,head of development at BMWMotorrad.

|

When robots are at the wheel, far fewer bikers will die on theroad, which won’t be lost on all those people who pine for amotorcycle but have always been too scared to buy one.

|

“It would mean a dramatic enhancement in safety for themotorbike,” Schaller said. “And it would guarantee a wider usergroup.”

|

Danger of left turns on American roads


The math is as straightforward as it is compelling. Consider aleft turn on an American road: A vehicle turning across a laneof opposing traffic has little to do with the bike rider,but is one of the most dangerous things in motorcycling. Whenmotorcyclists die on the road, this is how it happens one out offive times, according to crash statistics from the National Highway TrafficSafety Administration.

|

This year, about 1,000 riders in the U.S. will lose their livesto the left turns of others. Cars traveling in the same directionas the motorcycle often don’t notice the bike overtaking onthe left. Cars making a turn while coming from the oppositedirection either fail to see the oncoming bike, or misjudge itsspeed.

|

Robot cars, in theory, won’t make either of these mistakes. Atfirst, they will be able to “see” the motorcycle with sensors orradar and either alert the driver or actively prevent the vehiclefrom cutting off the bike.

|

'Talk' to other vehicles on the road


But that’s just the beginning. Eventually, motorcycles will “talk”to all of the other vehicles on the road, constantly reminding themwhere they are, where they are heading, and at what speed. “We canuse that to build an electronic safety cage around a motorbike,”BMW’s Schaller said.

|

Once every aspiring biker realizes that the drivernext to him isn’t an existential threat, sales will climb insome places. Xavier Mosquet, a senior partner at BostonConsulting Group, said the bike boost will be most pronounced inmarkets such as the U.S., where people ride for fun, and in Chinaand India, where many choose motorbikes because they are relativelyinexpensive transportation.

|

Conversely, in such places as Europe. where motorcycles areoften the best way to avoid traffic, self-driving cars mayactually dent sales, according to Mosquet. If all goes asplanned, there will be fewer tie-ups or accidents, lessrubbernecking, and thus less to be gained by jumping on a bike andsplitting lanes of standstill traffic.

|

“I think it’s going to depend on the motivation and thelocation,” Mosquet said.

|

Nevertheless, for motorcycles and the companies that make them,self-driving cars can’t come soon enough.

|

Fatalities for U.S. drivers have surged in the past 18 months:Last year, traffic deaths in the U.S. climbed by 7.2 percent, thelargest uptick since 1966. Fatalities were up by afurther 10.4 percent in the first half of this year. NHTSAchief Mark Rosekind called the increase in driving deaths “animmediate crisis.”

|

Motorcyclists suffered 14.2% of all 2015 traffic deaths


A disproportionate number of these fatalities are motorcycleriders, as revealed by one shocking statistic:While bikers account for less than 1 percent of vehiclemiles traveled in the U.S., motorcyclists suffered 14.2 percent ofall traffic deaths in 2015.

|

The biggest problem is that Americans are driving more, thanksto a bullish labor market and cheap gas. But even on a per-milebasis, the death rates are alarming. NHTSA said the culprit is aninflux of younger drivers who are both inexperienced and moreinclined to be reckless.

|

Distraction is a problem as well. An estimated one in 10 fatalcrashes is caused by not watching the road, though the real numbercould be far higher than the data suggest.

|

One NHTSA official who requested anonymity said distractionis difficult to measure after the fact, unlike blood-alcohollevels. But the proliferation of smartphone technology andtexting has often been cited as a potential cause.

|

It’s hoped that autonomous cars will reduce these terriblenumbers. And if these self-driving cars embolden a new wave ofeasy riders, they’ll start showing up soon. Mark Reuss, productdevelopment chief at General Motors Co., said new cars will be“mostly in charge” of driving by 2020 and fully in control by 2025.Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has a similarforecast — he thinks half of all cars made in 2022 or 2023 will befully autonomous.

|

Self-driving motocycles lagging behind self-driving cars


Self-driving motorcycles, meanwhile, may be farther off. YamahaMotor Co., which is developing a bike-riding cyborg dubbed Motobot,estimates they will lag self-driving cars by at least adecade. But autonomous features will help motorcycle ridersfar sooner — BMW envisions a suite of systems that map the roadahead and alert the rider to curves and conditions. If the bikecalculates that it is going too fast for upcoming terrain, it canwarn its pilot.

|

The trade-off for cars getting safer is that it may makeriding in them dull. But biking will be safer while remainingfun. Driving a motorcycle will be, well, driving. Riding in a carwill largely be about checking email and catching up on Game ofThrones.

|

“We are not about going from A to B,” Schaller said. “Motorbikesare about going from A to A. Our business is pleasure.”

|

Related: Feds outline plans to regulate autonomouscars

|

Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rightsreserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten,or redistributed.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free PropertyCasualty360 Digital Reader

  • All PropertyCasualty360.com news coverage, best practices, and in-depth analysis.
  • Educational webcasts, resources from industry leaders, and informative newsletters.
  • Other award-winning websites including BenefitsPRO.com and ThinkAdvisor.com.
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.