Vehicles with assisted driving features are already available onthe mass market, and connected car technology is quickly reaching atipping point.

Fully driverless vehicles are not far behind, as carmanufacturers and tech giants — including Google, Uber,Tesla and GM — push prototypes through thousands of milesof testing with the promise to enter production. Businesses and consumers aren't theonly ones trying to make sense of a future without human drivers;insurance firms must also find pricing and coverage models that canaccommodate the reality of autonomous vehicles.

Related: Driverless cars: Are billions being invested in arobot Americans don't want?

Major market changes will likely occur in phases, with earlyautonomous car adoption primarily limited to the corporate sphereand only a small number of consumers pioneering the technology.Over time, as insurance firms develop more informed risk models andautomated vehicles become more intelligent and safe, driverlesscars will see mass adoption. While fully autonomous vehicles areunprecedented, the industry enjoys a variety of tools andstrategies that will prove useful in adapting to the new realitiesof vehicle ownership.

The upside of limited adoption

The shift to autonomous vehicles, like countless othertechnological innovations that have come before, will be gradual,giving the market ample time to adjust. The prohibitive cost of thetechnology will prevent mainstream adoption for some time, leavingforward-thinking businesses and wealthy tech aficionados to pavethe way for future consumers. Both groups will be well positionedto absorb unexpected costs associated with the technology, andtheir experiences will inform insurance firms' riskassessments.

Autonomous vehicle use cases will likely play a large role indetermining insurance costs, just as a driver's age and gender dotoday. On one extreme, vehicles used for drayage or local transport(even pizza delivery), will likely benefit from verylow insurance rates, while consumer and enterprise transportationvehicles will constitute a much larger risk. Of course, theintelligence and safety of driverless vehicles themselves will alsoplay a leading role in guiding insurance rates and liabilities.

Despite persistent fears, autonomous vehicles appear to be (atthe very least) as safe as their human-driven counterparts, if notsafer. To date, Google's autonomous vehicle experiments havehad one accident where the vehicle was at fault, andoccurred while the vehicle was moving two miles per hour. Even ifinsurers choose to preemptively raise rates on driverless vehiclesin anticipation of a slew of accidents, costs will quickly adjustto match their actual level of risk.

The implications of human drivers taking a backseat

By the time driverless technology becomes affordable enough forgeneral adoption, vehicle ownership will look markedly differentthan it does today. In the same way that owning a horse today is aluxury — rather than a staple of transportation, manuallydriven vehicles could become an uncommon alternative for hobbyists.Depending on the future success of ride-sharing ventures like Uberand Lyft, owning a car may itself become a luxury, as autonomousvehicles allow the sharing economy to replace individual vehicleownership.

In an environment where a dwindling number of human-operatedvehicles are responsible for a disproportionate number ofcollisions, insurance rates will probably rise to compensate. Intime, government agencies may eventually impose limitations on theuse of human-driven vehicles.

Related: Google sees stranded seniors as big market forself-driving cars

By the time autonomous vehicles reach mass market penetration,they likely will be safer than human-driven cars and trucks. Ipredict that this will likely invert existing insurance incentives;rather than charging premium rates to insure autonomous vehicles,conventional transportation will instead be penalized. Already,accidents involving driverless vehicles have occurred due to humannegligence.

Going forward, insurance models should adapt to theinevitability of un- or under-insured vehicles causing a collision.While these situations share many commonalities with conventionalaccidents, in some cases it may be difficult or impossible todetermine the owner of a driverless (and potentiallypassenger-less) vehicle. In response, businesses and consumers maydecide to carry more comprehensive umbrella policies that cover abroad swatch of potential incidents. Depending on the scope andquality of autonomous vehicle software development, insurance firmsmay even choose to offer discounts to customers who invest in moresophisticated driverless technology.

There will be a number of growing pains during the transition toautonomous vehicles, but increased safety and convenience offer apromising future. Even as insurance offerings, business practicesand consumer behaviors adapt, the future autonomous vehiclespromise is surprisingly familiar.

Related: Autonomous tech could revolutionize freighttransport as much as personal travel

Matt DeWolf is the director of productinnovation at Waterford, Wisconsin-based Runzheimer, wherehe drives the transformation of products and mobiletechnology strategy for enterprise clients.