(Bloomberg) — El Nino is back.

Australia has declared the event for the first time since 2010and says it will probably be “substantial.” Japan also said El Ninohad emerged.

The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of the pattern thatcan bring drought to parts of Asia and rains to South America, andocean temperatures will probably stay above thresholds through thesouthern hemisphere winter and at least into spring, the AustralianBureau of Meteorology said Tuesday.

The last El Nino was from 2009 to 2010 and the Pacific haseither been in its cooler state called La Nina, or neutral sincethen. The pattern can crimp the hurricane season in theAtlantic, bring more rain across the southern U.S. and warm somenorthern states. It heralds a drier winter and spring inAustralia's east. Warm anomalies in the Pacific in March and Aprilwere very similar to those observed in 1997, a year of an “intense”El Nino, Meteo-France said last month.

“It's come on quickly and all of our model guidance predictsit's going to continue to strengthen,” David Jones, manager ofclimate monitoring and prediction at the bureau, said by phone. “Asignificant or substantial event is likely.”

The effects have already been felt before the officialdeclaration. Morgan Stanley said in December that weather in SouthAmerica for much of the previous month had been typical of an ElNino, citing above-normal rain in Argentina and southern Brazil anddry conditions in northeast Brazil. Palm oil, cocoa, coffee andsugar are the crops most at risk, according to Goldman Sachs GroupInc. last year.

Indian Monsoon

The monsoon in India, the world's second-biggest producer ofsugar and wheat, may be below normal for a second year as the eventdevelops, according to Harsh Vardhan, the country's minister ofscience and technology and earth sciences. El Nino is causingdryness in the Philippines, Oil World, a Hamburg-based researcher,said this month.

“Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean haveexceeded El Nino thresholds for the past month,” the bureau said onits website. “Trade winds have remained consistentlyweaker-than-average since the start of the year, cloudiness at theDate Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index hasremained negative for several months.”

While El Nino increases the risk of drought in Australia, it'snot guaranteed, according to the bureau. Of the 26 events since1900, 17 have resulted in widespread drought, it said.

Cropping Areas

Farmers in eastern Australia will be keeping an eye on theforecast with planting of winter crops including wheat, barley andcanola under way. Wheat production in the world's fifth-biggestexporter is set to increase 3.3% this year to 24.4 million metrictons, the government said in March.

“I don't necessarily think it will sway people given how goodthe start's been in most cropping areas around Australia,” GraydonChong, an analyst at Rabobank International, said from Sydney. “Itwill have people worried if we continue to see a strengthening ElNino towards the second half of the year.”

Australia had raised the possibility of an El Nino for most of2014 before tempering forecasts as changes to the atmosphere failedto develop consistently. The Bureau of Meteorology revived itsprediction in March as the Pacific warmed. Japan's weather agencysaid on Tuesday that the event is likely to persist through theNorthern Hemisphere's autumn.

Palm oil futures climbed as much as 1.6% to the highest level infive weeks in Kuala Lumpur on concern dry weather spurred by ElNino would curb yields in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for86 percent of world supplies. Indonesian production dropped 7.1%and Malaysian output fell 5.5% at the time of the last strong ElNino in 1997-1998, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said that a weak El Ninodeveloped in February and there's a 70% chance the pattern willcontinue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

“We look at about 10 climate models and they agree entirely,”said Jones from the Australian weather bureau. “We know that oncean El Nino event's established, it's very likely to last through tothe end of the year.”

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