(Bloomberg Business) — Critical events of early 2015 — cheap oiland Middle East violence — will probably continue to take theirtoll as the year goes on, according to a new projection ofgeopolitical hotspots. Lower overall prices for commodities mayhurt the economies of resource-rich nations.

Aon Risk Solutions, a unit of Aon Plc, today issued its annualPolitical Risk Map, intended to provide the British insurer'sclients with answers to common questions about where it's gettingsafer, and more dangerous, to do business.

There isn't a lot of good news. Just seven of 163developing countries reduced their political risk since lastyear, and most of those, like Zimbabwe and Laos, still haveplenty of room for improvement. Twelve countries face greaterstrain this year, including Libya, Haiti, and Pakistan.

“The last 12 months have just been catastrophiccountry-risk-wise,” said Curtis Ingram, vice president of thepolitical-risk practice. It's almost like “a vacuum has opened upand a lot of bad actors have moved in,” in Crimea and EasternUkraine, Nigeria, Iraq, and elsewhere.

Aon and research partner Roubini Global Economics, founded bythe economist Nouriel Roubini, evaluate each nationacross nine categories of risk, such as foreigncurrency exchange and capital conditions, law and regulation,and political interference and violence. The report considers onlydeveloping nations; members of the Organization for EconomicCo-Operation and Development (OECD) together form the baseline forthe research and are therefore excluded.

Here are five of the things the report says we should keepan eye on in the months ahead.

Russia

Low oil prices and international sanctions stemming from theUkraine conflict have taken their toll on the Russian economy. Themurder last week of Boris Nemtsov, an opposition leader andYeltsin-era deputy prime minister — not mentioned in the report buta dark omen — has exacerbated internal political tensions.

Russia's instability will “continue to cast a shadow over theregion,” according to the political risk report, which projectsconsequent hardships for trading partners Belarus and Kazakhstan.Researchers see “a possible frozen conflict and continuedsanctions” in Ukraine, unlikely to be resolved in the monthsahead.

Oil and other commodities

Russia, Venezuela and Iran have drawn much of the attention, andpunishment, from the oil glut. It's also a problem for smallerpowers, such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, whose fragile foreigncurrency exchange and capital policies leave them vulnerable totrade shocks. Mining-and energy-heavy nations in Africa — Angola,Cameroon, Congo, and Nigeria — all face weaker incomes and likelyspending cuts.

Conflict and violence

The horrors of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and Boko Haramin Nigeria, are top threats to regional stability. Porous bordersand immature civic institutions in parts of the Middle East andAfrica make nations there particularly sensitive to violence.

(AP Photo/Mohammad Hannon)

Interest rates

Even modest interest-rate increases by the Fed will intensifythe global competition for capital and make it costlier toservice external debt.

The Middle East and North Africa

Countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco should see a boostfrom the oil price drop, the report's authors suggest. Yet allthree countries, rated either high or very high risks, facecountervailing security risks from what the report calls powervacuums in Iraq, Libya and Syria.

There's also everywhere else. Private insurers have offeredpolitical risk coverage for several decades, to help companies takesome of the edge off doing business in new and emerging markets.But, like most of us, the problems of these places like totravel. Turkey and Mexico, for example, may be particularlypolitically or economically vulnerable to tumult in theMiddle East and Latin America. But as OECD members, they pose risksthat aren't addressed in the report.

In other words, pessimists shouldn't feel confined to thedeveloping world.

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