Editor's note: This post originally appeared on the WillisWire blog.

On Thursday 18th September, the Ebola outbreak in West Africaofficially mutated, in the eyes of the United Nations and thePresident of the United States, from being a medical emergency to athreat to global security. In the words of the World HealthOrganisation's Director, Dr Margaret Chan: “This is not just anoutbreak. This is not just a public health crisis. This is a socialcrisis, a humanitarian crisis, an economic crisis, and a threat tonational security well beyond the outbreak zones''.

A Threat to International Order

The UN Security Council called the Ebola outbreak “a threat tointernational peace and security” as the Secretary General, Ban-kiMoon called for a billion dollars in aid to contain and tackle thevirus.

So why should the spread of this deadly virus (with casesdoubling every three weeks) represent a threat to the internationalorder? At ground level in these often impoverished and fragilestates the contagion tramples rough-shod through governance,provision of public services, public security and predominantlyrural economies. In some areas, hunger stalks the virus. Forexample, the fields of Lofa County, once Liberia's breadbasket, nowlie fallow. The production of vital cash crops and exports such aspalm oil, cocoa and rubber is likely to fall off, as will vitalinward trade. Mineral extraction is an important mainstay of themany of the affected countries and those in the region; withexpatriates leaving and local workers exposed to the disease theimpact on this sector in the region could be debilitating.

In Urban areas, already rickety infrastructure becomes harder tomaintain, while industries are suffocated by restrictions onmovement of people and the goods so critical to regional trade. Itis possible that the economic repercussions of the virus on suchfragile economies may, in themselves, cause comparable levels ofdeath. Quarantine measures have already sparked violence betweenpolice and protesters. Health workers report difficulties ingaining the trust of locals when searching for bodies or tracingthe recent contacts of the dead. Civil disorder, should it occur,may become uncontainable due to weakened government and policestructures.

Devastating Consequences

Taken together, these factors, unchecked, could create theconditions for state collapse and economic breakdown at both stateand regional level with profound regional security ramifications.Even if the disease were not to spread beyond African shores, theUnited States, the World Bank and the UN envisage the damage to W.Africa, its people, trade and prosperity as demanding “a level ofinternational action unprecedented for a health emergency”.Unspoken but surely in the minds of global leaders is that analready tardy response, if ineffective, will further challenge theunderlying concept of a responsive and humanitarian internationalsystem.

The UN resolution calls for travel bans imposed by some statesto be lifted, pointing out that affected countries need to haveaccess to aid instead of being isolated. Organisations travellingto or working in the region should take expert advice and refer tothe World Health Organization's website. In case of an assessedrequirement to move within or away from the region, contingencyplans should be reviewed and rehearsed.

Tim Holt is head of Inform at Alert: 24, a new crisis andrisk management consultancy from Special Contingency Risks. He hasspent much of his career in regions of risk with the British Army,the Red Cross and on cease-fire negotiations. He has workedglobally for corporations, the British government, NGOs and the UNas a risk management adviser and responder, encouragingintelligence-driven risk management.