Are tornadoes increasing in both intensity and frequency, orcould skewed historical data lead to false conclusions?

This question has vexed climatologists and P&C insurersalike amid the escalating reports of twisters when comparedto the previous 15 to 20 years. But researchers at FloridaState University (FSU) may have answers, thanks to a model theydeveloped to more accurately gauge tornado risk.

The pioneering researchers provide an overview of the model in“The Decreasing Population Bias in Tornado Reports across theCentral Plains,” an article in Weather, Climate, andSociety, an academic journal published by the AmericanMeteorological Society. In addition to outlining the methodology,the team offers a plausible explanation as to the discrepancy inconfirmed reports: namely, a population bias, coupled with theproliferation of storm chasers and recreational risk-takers roamingTornado Alley.

Having long suspected that tornadoes were traditionallyunderreported in rural areas especially, James B. Elsner (ageography professor at FSU) and fellow co-authors—Lauren E.Michaels (graduate student), Kelsey N. Scheitlin, an assistantprofessor at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville, and Ian J.Elsner, a graduate student at the University of Florida—say theperceived uptick in tornado activity is deceiving.

“Most estimates of tornado risk are probably too low becausethey are based on the reported number of tornadoes,”Elsner says. “Our research can help better quantify the actual riskof a tornado. This will help with [enhancing] building codes andemergency awareness.”

More data is readily available today, partially because storm ofadvances in reporting technology, including mobile Internet and GPSnavigating systems, along with greater public awareness.

The Science of Tornadoes

It's also important to note that this new research willhelp propel the scientific exploration of tornadoes,Elsner explains. “The science of tornadoes can move forward toaddress questions related to whether cities enhance or inhibittornadoes,” he says.

The model corrects assumptions about reporting in urban andrural areas and, for the most part, dispels the notion thattornadoes are occurring with greater frequency.However, researchers add that some evidence portends morepowerful (and therefore destructive) tornadoes.

“The risk of violent tornadoes appears to be increasing,” Elsnersaid in a statement, citing the tornadoes in Oklahoma City onMay 31 and the 2011 tornadoes in Joplin, Mo., and Tuscaloosa,Ala.

The Oklahoma City tornado on May 31, 2013, was the largesttornado ever recorded, with a path of destruction measuring 2.6miles in width. The Tuscaloosa and Joplin tornadoes are two of thedeadliest and most expensive natural disasters in recent U.S.history.