AIG announced it has not received about $420million required as an interim step toward completion ofthe sale of its leasing subsidiary to a Chinese investment groupsometime in June.

However, this snag—and the potential it raises that the salecould fall through—is unlikely to delay designation of AIG as asystemically significant nonbank by the government—a step thatcould occur as early as June 3.

Speculation centers on AIG, Prudential Financial, GE Capital tobe the first non-bank SIFIs designated.

John Nadel, an analyst at Sterne Agee & Leach in New York,implied in an investor's note that the only potential impact on AIGfrom the the failure of the deal to go through would be that thecompany could rethink the timing of share repurchases.

In his note, Nadel pointed to "press reports that the FinancialStability Oversight Council could meet and "formally designate thefirst wave of non-bank Systemically Significant FinancialInstitutions" June 3.

"Whether it occurs Monday or at a later date, we fully expect(in line w/consensus) AIG will be among the first non-bank SIFIdesignated," said Nadel, adding "a designation alone means verylittle without understanding what the formal rules, stress testing,etc. will be."

And without that knowledge, "we suspect managements (AIGincluded) will be less likely to repurchase shares given the riskthat ultimately the rules prove more onerous than expected."

"Clearly we could be wrong on this," he wites, "but consideringthe upside vs. the downside from management's and the board'sperspective of getting something wrong, we continue to believemanagement is more likely to be patient and await clarity on theformal rules," Nadel said.

As to the leasing unit, AIG agreed in December to sell up to 90percent of its leasing business, International Leasing FinanceCorp., to a Chinese consortium for up to $4.8 billion.

AIG announced this morning it has not received the 10% ofpurchase price, about $420 million, due to be escrowed by the buyerof ILFC as of the due date May 30th.

"AIG did not indicate whether this alone has yet put the deal injeopardy of being terminated, though we note AIG does retain theright, based on the purchase agreement, to terminate the deal as aresult of the escrow not being received timely," Nadel said.

The sale was for a far cheaper pricethan AIG sought and will lead to a substantialloss. But AIG wanted to sell the unit to simplify the company andbecause of the great amounts of borrowing needed to finance theleasing unit, analysts said.

Another reason, according to a July 2012 filing, is that ILFC ishaving difficulty placing aircraft it owned and leased to airlinesthat have since gone bankrupt. Furthermore, the number ofcarriers in arrears on rental payments has doubled over the pastyear.

In its filing, ILFC cited such recent challenges in the globaleconomy as the European sovereign debt crisis, politicaluncertainty in the Middle East, and sustained higher fuel prices.This has increased the "probability that some airlines,including our customers, will cease operations or file forbankruptcy."