Property and casualty insurers appear set to enjoy a solid firstquarter due to relatively benign losses and continuing rateincreases in both personal and commercial lines, a new analysissuggests.

In its P&C Q1 Earnings Preview, analyst firm Keefe, Bruyetteand Woods says, “Excluding some manageable losses from [February'snor'easter], the weather [in Q1] was rather benign, whilecommercial lines' rate increases are holding and personal lines'rate increases are modestly accelerating.”

KBW says it expects insures and brokers to largely hit consensusestimates.

Regarding weather losses during the period, KBW notes that U.S.storm counts were down by about 38 percent compared to 2012's firstquarter. February's nor'easter represented the most significantU.S. weather event of the quarter, but the firm describes itsimpact as “modest.”

Aside from that storm, KBW says the quarter saw fewer hailevents — which accounted for about two-thirds of the decrease inlosses — and fewer wind and tornado events.

Internationally, KBW says global reinsurers will likely “make itthrough [the quarter] unscathed.”

While KBW notes that rate increases continue across theindustry, the firm cautions that personal auto increases maydecelerate, “as a few large auto insurers like Progressive andAllstate look to grow policy counts.”

KBW's report follows a commercial-lines analysis by Willis, which predicts moderateupward pressure on rates in general throughout 2013, although withsome exceptions. For example, some non-catastrophe-exposedcommercial property risks could see rate decreases, Willis says, aswell as some specialty-lines coverages.

“The specialty lines present a complex picture, with acombination of price increases and decreases across product lines,”Willis says in a statement accompanying its analysis. “Willisexpects rate declines in the aviation, healthcare professional,political risks and surety coverage lines. Meanwhile, rateincreases can be expected in the fidelity/crime, kidnap &ransom, terrorism and trade credit lines.”