Hurricane Sandy is likely to wipe out the fourth quarterearnings of Chubb, Allstate and Arch Capital Group says a CreditSuisse analysts.
|In a research report released today, Credit Suisse assumes a $10billion loss from Hurricane Sandy, which continued to gain strengthas it prepared to hit the Northeast around mid-day Monday.
|Credit Suisse based its loss analysis on a $10 billion estimatedcost, which its analysts said would make it the fifth costliesthurricane in history.
|Meteorologists said its projected path put New York City andLong Island in the danger zone for a huge surge of seawater mademore fearsome by high tides and a full moon.
|“This is the worst-case scenario,” said Louis Uccellini,environmental prediction chief for the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration.
|Credit Suisse projected an 84 percent cut in fourth-quarterestimated earnings for the Hartford, and a 62 percent cut in fourthquarter earnings for American International Group.
|It projected a 57 percent cut in fourth quarter earnings forCincinnati Financial, and a 47 percent cut in earnings for XL.
|Losses of 40 percent for Travelers and a 39 percent cut forPlatinum Underwriters Holdings were projected by Credit Suisseanalysts Michael Zaremski and Ji Liu.
|The report was based on insurers' market, reinsurance programsand historical hurricane losses.
|The report made clear that losses were expected to be under $10billion, although “considerable uncertainty” remains, the analystssaid.
|The report said that, historically, only Katrina and Andrew havecaused an insured loss of over $20 billion, $48 billion for Katrinaand $25 billion for Andrew, followed by Ike ($13 billion); Wilma($12 billion); and Charley, $9 billion, according to the PropertyClaims Services reports.
|The analysts said that Irene, which has a similar path asSandy, produced $4.3 billion to $5 billion of insured losses, perPCS and Aon.
|The analysts said that at mid-day Monday the hurricane wasgaining strength and threatening 50 million people.
|Forecasters expected the monster hurricane to make a westwardlurch and aim for the coast of New Jersey, blowing ashore Mondaynight or early Tuesday and combining with two other weather systemsto create an epic super-storm.
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