Insured losses from a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that struck eastern Turkey on Oct. 23 are estimated between $55 million and $200 million, according to two catastrophe-modeling firms.

The quake occurred nine miles north-northeast of Van, Turkey, which has a population of 372,000. Scores of buildings were demolished throughout the region, and the event has taken the lives of more than 500 people.

Catastrophe-modeler Eqecat says insured losses could range from $100 to $200 million, although total economic damage is put in low single-digit billions.

The economic damage is about one-tenth of that wreaked by the 1999 magnitude 7.6 Izmit earthquake in western Turkey and 10 times the damage from the 2010 magnitude 6.1 earthquake in eastern Turkey, says Eqecat.

The modeler notes that residential buildings throughout the eastern part of the nation are not constructed to withstand earthquakes.

Insurance losses are to be assumed by the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP), a national earthquake insurance for residential buildings.

TCIP penetration is approximately 20 percent, Eqecat estimates, and take-up in the east, where the earthquake occurred, is less than the national average. The company says its insured-loss estimate is based on damage to residential buildings.

Catastrophe-modeler AIR Worldwide puts estimated insured losses from the quake at between $55 million and $170 million.

AIR says the range in losses is due to uncertainties that exist in estimating earthquake-source parameters, including magnitude, rupture length, depth and dipping angle, among others.

Estimated losses include insured physical damage to property, both structures and their contents, and estimated losses for the TCIP, says AIR. The estimate does not include losses from non-modeled perils including landslide and fire-following; losses to automobiles, uninsured properties, land, infrastructure, and casualty and life lines; business-interruption losses; loss adjustment expenses; and demand surge—the increase in costs of materials, services and labor due to increased demand following a catastrophic event.

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Insured Losses Mount to $200M for Turkey Quake

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