WASHINGTON (AP) — Tropical Storm Irene's trek up the East Coastcaused less damage than many had feared, a bit of reassuring newsfor a fragile economy.

|

Insured damages from the storm will likely range between $2billion and $3 billion, and total losses will likely be about $7billion, according to preliminary estimates from Kinetic AnalysisCorp., a consulting firm.

|

Both figures are lower than had been expected, suggesting thatthe storm poses little threat to the nation's $14 trillion economy.Some economists said that, as with past hurricanes and earthquakes,the recovery could end up boosting growth in the coming months.Demand for building repairs might help the depressed constructionindustry, for example.

|

Slideshow: Hurricane Irene Damage in Photos

|

“Irene left several places with black eyes, but it doesn't seemto have delivered an economic knockout,” said Ryan Sweet, aneconomist at Moody's Analytics.

|

In the short run, the costs will grow as storm-ravaged areasdeal with lost business, dislocated workers and transportationdelays — damage that will take months to understand. And in someareas, the impact will be measured in lost tourist dollars,canceled flights and shuttered stores.

|

Irene slammed into a region that's vital to the economy'shealth. The mid-Atlantic and New England account for about 16percent of the nation's economic output and about 14 percent of itsworkforce, Sweet said.

|

Related: Summary ofHurricane Irene News

|

But Kinetic's estimates suggest that Irene will have caused farless insured damage than the $6 billion the insurance industry paidout after Hurricane Isabel struck the East Coast in 2003. Other analystsagreed broadly with Kinetic's early estimates, saying insuredlosses are unlikely to exceed $4 billion. Other consultants willrelease their own projections this week.

|

Sweet said small businesses on the North Carolina coast willlikely lose two weekends of tourist activity, including thetravel-heavy Labor Day weekend. Beach communities spanning the EastCoast face the same threat.

|

For ordinary people in hard-hit areas, Irene's costs could runhigh. Victims of natural disasters often lack the insurance theyneed to recover their losses and return to work quickly, said SusanVoss, Iowa's top insurance regulator and president of the NationalAssociation of Insurance Commissioners. People who lose homes canend up in temporary housing far from their homes andworkplaces.

|

Many don't realize that flood damage isn't covered by standardhomeowner's insurance policies, Voss noted. A standard homeownerpolicy covers damage caused by wind or by rain through a damagedroof. A separate flood insurance policy would be needed to coverdamage from rising water, such as from the storm surges unleashedby Irene.

|

Economists said that reconstruction from Irene could increaseU.S. economic growth in the October-December quarter, though thebenefits will be limited by the relatively slight damage the stormcaused.

|

“This region is very highly insured, so a lot of money willstart pouring in, and that should re-employ a lot of constructionworkers who are now out of work,” said Mark Zandi, chief economistat Moody's Analytics. He said the benefits from rebuilding mightextend into next year's January-March quarter.

|

“That will put some people back to work, at least temporarily,”said David Kotok, chairman of Cumberland Advisors.

|

For now, power outages and flooding will close some businesses,costing workers pay and likely increasing some temporary layoffs.Transportation and shipping may also be disrupted. The length ofthe outages and the extent of public transportation problems incities like New York will help determine the costs, analystssaid.

|

Such disruptions will emerge in economic data starting thiscoming week, when the government reports how many people appliedfor unemployment benefits as the storm bore down on the Southeast.Economists expect a post-storm rise in applications.

|

One concern is that weak economic data, even if blamed on anatural disaster, could weigh on consumer confidence and makebusinesses reluctant to spend.

|

But major fixtures of the economy are already returning tonormal. The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are preparing toopen Monday. Mayor Michael Bloomberg lifted an evacuation order forlower Manhattan as of 3 p.m. Sunday.

|

Airlines planned to resume some flights into and out of EastCoast airports on Monday. Crews are already restoring power inSouthern states hit by the storm and are starting work in thenortheast.

|

And Irene will add only about 15 percent to insurers'weather-related payouts this year, if the current cost estimateshold. Tornadoes, flooding, and droughts in the Midwest and South haveforced the industry to handle about $17 billion in weather-relatedclaims this year.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free PropertyCasualty360 Digital Reader

  • All PropertyCasualty360.com news coverage, best practices, and in-depth analysis.
  • Educational webcasts, resources from industry leaders, and informative newsletters.
  • Other award-winning websites including BenefitsPRO.com and ThinkAdvisor.com.
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.