The tropics are definitely beginning to heat up, bothfiguratively and literally speaking. At 12 p.m. Tuesday, TropicalStorm Gert was located approximately 600 miles northeast of Bermudawith maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. This tropicalstorm had minimal effects on the island of Bermuda and is expectedto remain a “fish storm,” or one that only affects fish and doesnot pose any threat to land and those residing nearby.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the Cape Verde hurricane season hasarrived, and meteorologists are watching the Atlantic Ocean closelyto see what disturbances may develop into tropical storms orhurricanes. The Cape Verde hurricane season got its name because ofthe climatologically favored time of year when organized tropicalwaves move off the African coast and across the Cape Verde Islandsin the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. This is often considered themost significant and worrisome part of the hurricane season becausethe ocean waters are very warm, and any organized tropical wavesthat emerge off the African Coast often have seven to 10 days tostrengthen as they move westward across the Atlantic Ocean. Theseare the storms that many times become the Category 3, 4, and 5hurricanes and threaten the Caribbean islands, U.S., or the Gulf ofMexico.

Right now, ocean water temperatures in the tropical AtlanticOcean and Gulf of Mexico are near normal, though some areas areseeing anomalies of 1.5 to 3 degrees above normal. In fact, much ofthe mid-Atlantic coastal waters from North Carolina up throughMaine currently have water temperatures anywhere from 2 to 5degrees above normal. This is very concerning, becauseabove-average water temperatures may prevent tropical systems thatmove across these areas from weakening as much as they usually do.In fact, this setup fosters the possibility of an enhancedhurricane risk for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, should atropical system move in that direction.

Hurricane Threat on the Horizon?

Early Tuesday afternoon, visible satellite imagery over theAtlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea showed that several tropical waveswere traversing across the ocean waters. During that time, the mostsignificant tropical wave south of Puerto Rico showed some signs ofincreased thunderstorm development and a weak circulation, both ofwhich are often precursors to tropical storm formation. Computermodels predicted that this tropical wave will become a tropicalstorm by Wednesday, and then a hurricane as it heads toward or justsouth of Cancun, Mexico. The threat for a Category 1 or possiblyCategory 2 hurricane affecting Cancun and points south inapproximately three to five days is increasing. Given theexpectation that this storm will be moving northwest, there is agood chance that it could emerge in the western part of the Gulf ofMexico and threaten some land massed along the Gulf Coast,including Mexico and possibly Texas. The chance of this systemdeveloping into a tropical storm or hurricane is now 80percent.

In the long range, there is heightened concern that an organizedhurricane will threaten the Caribbean and possibly the East Coastof the U.S between August 25 and September 1. One reliable computermodel indicates that a tropical wave is about to emerge off theAfrican Coast and Cape Verde Islands and will strengthen into atropical cyclone over the next five to seven days. Some computermodels suggest that this hurricane will be a threat to the VirginIslands, the Bahamas, Mid-Atlantic coast, and even the Northeast.While there is plenty of time to see how things develop, there isan 80 percent chance that a hurricane will be a threat in theCaribbean or southwestern Atlantic Ocean during this time. I expectthe forecast track to change numerous times between now and then,but my confidence level is high that a hurricane is in our verynear future.

Howard Altschule is a forensic meteorologist and thepresident of Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC, a New York-basedweather expert firm that provides site-specific weather informationand opinions for claims, litigations and climate studies in theU.S. and abroad. His firm also provides hurricane forecastingservices for a variety of clients and personalized weatherforecasts for corporations year-round. Altschule has appeared on“The Today Show,” MSNBC, NBC, Court TV and CNN. He was appointed bythe Governor of New York to serve on the “Panel on HomeownersInsurance Coverage” and holds his American Meteorological Society“Seal of Approval.” For more information or sample written reports,visit www.WeatherConsultants.com or call 518-229-8846