NU Online News Service, Sept. 1, 12:25 p.m. EDT

A hurricane warning is in effect for the East Coast of the U.S.from Bogue Inlet, N.C., to the North Carolina/Virginia border asCategory 3 Hurricane Earl bears down on the region.

The hurricane warning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC)explained, means hurricane conditions are expected in the area.

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell has declared a state ofemergency in the state, "a step authorizing state agencies to takeprecautionary action to prepare for any potential impacts ineastern Virginia from Hurricane Earl," according to astatement.

Dare County ordered a mandatory evacuation for all HatterasIsland visitors. Hyde County ordered a mandatory evacuation forvisitors and residents of the island Ocracoke.

A hurricane watch is in effect for north of the NorthCarolina/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Del.

Additionally, the NHC said interests from New Jersey to NewEngland should "monitor the progress of Earl."

The storm, which has weakened from its Category 4 statusyesterday but is still a major hurricane, was located 815 milessouth-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., as of 11:00 EDT, accordingto the NHC. It is moving toward the northwest at around 17 milesper hour, the NHC said, and is expected to approach the NorthCarolina coast by late Thursday.

Earl is expected to turn north over the next day and trackparallel to the U.S. East Coast.

"Earl is a large hurricane," the NHC said. "Hurricane forcewinds extend outward up to 90 miles...from the center, and tropicalstorm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles [from thecenter]."

The NHC said there is a possibility the hurricane could regainsome intensity, but added most estimates point to gradual weakeningover the next day or two, before the storm moves over cooler watersand into increasing wind shear that would cause increasedweakening. By day five of the forecast, Earl should be absorbed bya large extratropical cyclone well north of Canada, the NHCsaid.

Catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS) said adirect landfall is not forecast at this stage.

Because of the forecasted track, risk modeler Eqecat said theexpected maximum onshore winds should be Category 1 or lower,rather than the full-force Category 3 conditions. If that is thecase, Eqecat said insured losses would likely be less than $100million for the event.

But Eqecat said the trajectory of Earl adds "significantuncertainty in projecting losses." If the storm continues to trendto the west, the storm could pass closer to the mainland, creatingstronger onshore conditions. "An evaluation of Category 2 and 3storms with tracks approximately 100 miles to the west of thecurrent 'best track' highlights the potential for Earl to causelosses approaching [$500 million]," Eqecat said.

RMS added that a slight deviation to the west means that "NorthCarolina and potentially other states to the north" could beexposed to hurricane force winds.

Many companies in the insurance industry, meanwhile, have beensending out statements urging customers to be prepared forHurricane Earl. Companies such as Ohio Casualty, MontgomeryInsurance, Chartis, Zurich and Nationwide have issued suchstatements, as has the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers ofAmerica.

As for damage already done by Hurricane Earl, RMS said,"Following Earl's passage by the northern Leeward Islands in thelast 48 hours, reports indicate that Earl was of sufficientmagnitude to trigger the hurricane coverage of the CaribbeanCatastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) for Anguilla, the onlyisland that was subject to hurricane force winds."

RMS said the CCRIF has reported that Anguilla is to receive justover $4 million. Other areas covered by CCRIF policies were lessseverely impacted by Earl, and there has been no indication fromthe CCRIF that coverage has been triggered in those countries, RMSsaid.

This article was updated to correct the spelling ofEqecat.