NU Online News Service, June 1, 2:30 p.m. EDT

While the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to affectthe formation or speed of hurricanes, the direction of storms couldeither further harm or help efforts to keep the spill fromsensitive wetlands and vacation spots, a catastrophe modelersaid.

On the heels of news reports focusing on the potentialimplications of a hurricane strike on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Rigspill, Boston-based AIR Worldwide issued its own roundup andanalysis.

Although the current spill is "historic in extent," AIR said, itcovers only about 3 percent of the Gulf, and is therefore unlikelyto cut off enough water evaporation to choke off stormformation.

"If a group of thunderstorms that might otherwise grow into ahurricane did happen to pass directly over the spill," AIR said,"development could theoretically stall as storm cells are cut offfrom the water surface. But even much of the spill area remainspatchy."

For storms that have already developed, impact is likewiseestimated to be negligible, AIR said. "The winds even at the edgeof the storm would easily whip the seas into such a frenzy that theoil would mix with the ocean below, exposing enough water to thesurface that evaporation could take place and continue supplyingfuel to the storm," the catastrophe modeler said.

However, impact on mitigation efforts could be severe, accordingto AIR. If a tropical storm moves into the area, AIR noted, allrescue, spill control, coordination, and other activities wouldhave to be halted.

Barriers designed to keep oil away from the coast would beunmanned and "completely overwhelmed by tropical storm winds andhigh seas...," AIR added.

A single strong wind or storm surge event could breach barriersin place designed to protect animals' habitats, AIR said.

But a hurricane "making a glancing blow with the oil spill hassome potential upsides," AIR said. A storm could disperse the spilland mix the oil with ocean water, thus making it more dilute andless harmful.

The ultimate effects of dispersing too much of the oil, though,are unknown, AIR said.

A precisely located hurricane crossing from the Florida Keystoward the panhandle, AIR said, could provide enough rain and windin the right direction to push harmful oil off the shore and backout to sea.

But while beneficial to cleanup efforts, AIR noted, thehypothetical scenario is "quite specific" and involves "a largeamount of destruction" since it entails oil making landfallfollowed by a land-falling hurricane.