NU Online News Service

Revising its estimate upward, Eqecat catastrophe modeling firmsaid it now estimates economic damage from Tuesday's earthquake inHaiti to be in the low-single-digit billions of dollars.

The firm initially estimated that hundreds of millions ofdollars might be involved. The Oakland, Calif.-based firm said itwas increasing the figure "in light of the considerablehumanitarian aid needed for recovery, in addition to the cost ofreconstruction."

The cost of insurance losses is expected to be minimal with aproperty and casualty market in the country of just under $20million.

Insurance penetration is extremely low at around 0.3 percent ofGross Domestic Product. The majority of Haiti's insured risks aresituated in Port-au-Prince, and motor insurance accounts for 50percent of all non-life premiums, according to Newark, Calif.-basedRisk Management Solutions.

Eqecat's update said that since the 7.0 quake hit with itsepicenter southwest of Port-au-Prince, there have been 43aftershocks all occurring west of the initial shock.

Had the rupture that occurred been directed towardPort-au-Prince, the city would have experienced even moredevastation, according to Eqecat.

The firm said the quake, on the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden faultsystem, which is oriented in the east-west direction just south ofPort-au-Prince, ruptured only a portion of the fault, whichincreases the chances of another large earthquake in coming decadeson the eastern portion of the same fault.

Eqecat explained this danger exists because stress relieved by arupture is transferred to adjacent segments of the fault. Ifadditional stress on the eastern segment of this fault were totrigger another earthquake, it could impact Port-au-Prince withequal or greater severity as the recent event.

The modeling firm said its catastrophe event set specificallyincludes earthquakes on the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden faultsystem.

Fatalities from this event could be in the tens of thousands,the company noted.

The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility pool thatHaiti belongs to has been triggered, and CCRIF said it wouldprovide the country with a little under $8 million.