When push comes to shove this November, could Sen. John McCain'sopposition to the creation of a national catastrophe fund to backup state property insurance facilities cost him the White House? Ibelieve it could, if enough Floridians care enough to let theArizona Republican's position swing their vote to a more supportiveDemocratic candidate.

Think about it for a moment. In a close race, Florida willcertainly be a crucial state. It certainly made the difference in2000 and could do so again in 2008, especially if even a mildhurricane threatens Florida before Election Day to remind SunshineState residents of what's at stake.

During last month's primary, Rudy Giuliani was bitterlydisappointed that his fervent support for a national cat fund gothim nowhere with either the electorate, nor the state's powerhousegovernor, who delivered the death blow to his campaign by endorsingSen. McCain.

Thus, amazingly, McCain won Florida in spite of his outspokendismissal of the cat fund concept, instead suggesting vague supportfor a regional solution of some sort, while pledging to restoreFEMA's effectiveness in disaster recovery.

Both Democratic candidates left standing–Sens. Hillary Clintonand Barack Obama–have pledged their strong support for the nationalcat fund concept. There is no doubt that under a Democraticadministration, a national cat fund of some sort would have aterrific chance of becoming a reality, as the Dems look to lock upFlorida politically for the long-term.

Chuck Chamness, president and CEO of the National Association ofMutual Insurance Companies, which opposes a federal cat fund,addressed this issue eloquently in his Feb. 5 “NAMIC Advocacy”E-Letter on “Principles and Presidential Politics.”

Chuck rightfully praised McCain for not pandering to Floridiansby backing a cat fund concept he does not believe in.

“What did this primary teach us?” Chuck wrote. “One lesson isabout politicians and principles. Sen. McCain resisted thetemptation to 'go wobbly,' as British Prime Minister MargaretThatcher used to say, on his view that the Nat Cat plan pushed byCrist is a bad idea. He stuck to his principles in spite of theimportance of the homeowners insurance issue in Florida and thesignificant role Floridas primary played in his quest to becomepresident. This is a good sign.”

He added that the governor's endorsement of McCain, in spite ofthe senator's rejection of a bill near and dear to the hearts ofmany Floridians, “also speaks to the principles of Gov. Crist, who,with his counterparts in the Florida Democratic Party, engineeredthe early primary so they could leverage promises of Nat Catassistance from presidential candidates.”

I actually think Gov. Crist's 11th-hour endorsement was more acase of jumping on the bandwagon of the likely winner. I also thinkthat while his cat fund opposition did not cost McCain politicallyin his own party's primary, it could derail the “Straight-Talkin'Express” come November.

Chuck Chamness hit the nail on the head with his observationthat Gov. Crist “now faces criticism from Democrats in Florida forendorsing John McCain on the eve of his likely win. As the FloridaDemocratic Party spokesman said to the Palm Beach Post: 'This is aslap in the face to every Floridian. Of all the candidates in therace, Charlie Crist picks the one who ridicules the proposednational catastrophic fund that would reduce insurance rates forall Floridians.'”

They say what goes around, comes around. Sen. McCain pulled offperhaps his most important primary victory in Florida, yet hisstand on the cat fund could come back to haunt him in November ifenough Floridians who fear hurricanes more than terrorists crossover and vote for the Democrat who promises that under his (or her)administration, Uncle Sam will have their back.

What do you folks think?