It's not every day you get told off by an ex-FEMA director aswell as a retired admiral/former deputy secretary of HomelandSecurity. But that's exactly what happened in a letter from JamesLee Witt and James M. Loy, respectively, who now co-chairProtectingAmerica.Org.

The pair took issue with my Dec. 24, 2007 column recapping myguesses for last year's top stories, concluding that I had beenright on target in predicting there would be “lots of talk butlittle action” on their pet project–creating a national catastrophefund.

“It's one thing to be wrong about a prediction; it happens everyday. But you couldn't be more wrong about what did, in fact, happenin Congress on creating a national catastrophe fund,” theywrote.

“The fact is, the House of Representatives, by a bipartisan voteand a more than 100-vote margin, passed HR 3355, the HomeownersDefense Act of 2007. The speaker of the House and chairman of theHouse Financial Services Committee declared the creation of a catfund 'a national priority,'” the letter added.

“That's more than talk. That's definitive action and historicprogress on a bill that will help better prepare and protectconsumers and help rejuvenate the homeowners market for the 60percent of America that is exposed to massive hurricanes and majorearthquakes.”

Their letter concluded that “contrary to your 2007 prediction,progress was made in Congress, and America is halfway to betterprotection from catastrophes. Action will certainly come in theU.S. Senate; we hope it comes before the next catastrophestrikes.”

I'll concede that I overstated my case by saying there was“little action” in Congress. But I don't need a crystal ball totell me there is no way a national cat fund will be approved inthis Congress, with this White House, this year.

Even if the Senate does get on board with the bill passed by theHouse–which is very unlikely–the veto pen of President George W.Bush will loom just as large.

Will the political calculus change after Election Day? Not ifSen. John McCain is elected president. He buried Rudy Giuliani'sWhite House bid in Florida last week, despite the winner's adamantopposition and the loser's vocal support on whether to establish anational cat fund.

I give the “straight-talkin'” McCain a lot of credit forresisting the temptation to pander for Florida's crucial primaryvotes. He risked the wrath of Floridians by stating emphaticallythat a national cat fund is not the answer to the state's propertyinsurance woes. He prefers a more regional approach, whilepromising a new and improved FEMA.

Sen. McCain's firm opposition did not cost him politically,since he managed to secure the 11th-hour endorsement of Gov.Charlie Crist and trounce Rudy in the Sunshine State. That showsyou the issue has lost its potency after two quiet hurricaneseasons.

If a Democrat is elected president, the chances for passage aremuch higher–but still no sure thing, given other priorities such asIraq and health care reform.

Bottom line, I still don't think the bill has any chance ofbecoming law before 2009–and even then not unless there's anothermajor catastrophe (no big stretch to imagine) in the interim.

That said, just because I don't expect this dream to be realizeddoesn't mean I think it's a bad idea. The haphazard waycatastrophe-recovery is funded right now is insane. A national catfund, properly structured, is worthy of consideration.