ORLANDO, FLA.--The property-casualty insurance industry cancount on a year of catastrophes inflicting insured losses nearlydouble last year's record $58 billion, an economist warned at anindustry conference here.

"We are on a trajectory for a $100 billion year," said RobertHartwig, senior vice president and chief economist for theInsurance Information Institute.

Mr. Hartwig, who spoke at the annual seminar of the NationalCouncil on Compensation Insurance, did not say when this mighthappen, but gave the impression it could be soon, mentioning therecent increase in intensity and frequency of storms.

He cited Colorado State University projections that there is an81 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting somewhere on theU.S. coast and forecast a 195 percent increase in tropical cycloneactivity this year.

Displaying a chart with the total value of insured coastalproperties in various states, Mr. Hartwig commented that Floridastill has "a lot to be destroyed," citing a figure of nearly $2trillion.

His chart showed New York in second place with $1.9 trillion,and Texas, which he called "a mega-disaster waiting to happen,"with $740 billion.

Looking at the claims pileup from the 2005 storm season, Mr.Hartwig said it was "amazing that the tiny states of Louisiana andMississippi could generate such outsized losses."

As a result of the latest catastrophe modeling, Mr. Hartwig saidrating agencies will require some insurers to carry more capital tomaintain the same rating.

Quantifying the effects of the 2005 hurricanes, he said thatlast year's losses had "burned through 14 percent of net premiumsearned" by U.S. p-c insurers.

News reports of insurers being able to withstand the big lossesof 2005, he noted, overlooked the storms' devastating effect onreinsurers.

"Some are no longer with us--we lost four or five," headded.

Mr. Hartwig noted that the combined ratio for reinsurers in 2005was more than 124 and that there is currently a scramble forreinsurance among many primary carriers.

Reinsurance prices have increased 25 percent nationally and havegone higher in certain areas, he said. Coverage is being sold withhigher attachment points. In addition, Mr. Hartwig noted thatprices for retrocession contracts for reinsurers are higher.