The end of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) could spellchaos for the property-casualty insurance industry sinceinsufficient capacity exists to cover the exposures, an executivewith Marsh said yesterday.

Robert Blumber, managing director and leader of Marsh Inc.'sTerrorism Risk Practice, made his comments during a teleconferencesponsored by his brokerage on "Mitigating the Business Risks ofGlobal Terrorism."

"Assuming there is not another 9/11 type attack in the UnitedStates over the next 21 months, the consensus opinion appears to bethat a second extension of TRIA in 2007 is highly unlikely," saidMr. Blumber.

"If TRIA expires, it's not a very pretty picture for sure," hesaid, and detailed the following scenario.

There will be considerable property market dislocation; thecurrent captive insurance unit approach to dealing with terrorismrisk will no longer be viable; reliance on the stand-alone marketwill increase significantly and it will ultimately not havesufficient capacity to meet client demand; and the creation ofterrorism market solutions will be hampered.

Mr. Blumber advocated that clients take a very active role inthe debate to support the extension of TRIA. His comments came asindustry witnesses in New York painted a similar picture at ahearing of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.

"It is critical for businesses, as employers of thousands ofpeople and supporters of our nation's infrastructure and economy,to speak out and be heard on this subject," he said.

The possible demise of TRIA comes at a time when the nationaltake-up rate, or purchase of policies, is increasing--especiallyamong real estate, hospitality and financial institutions--standingat more than 70 percent nationally, he observed.

While there is some increase in writing in the stand-alonemarket to take up the increased exposure limits captives areexperiencing under the current TRIA provisions, captiveparticipants need to begin planning for a world without thebackstop, Mr. Blumber said. He noted that captives have been theonly viable option for risks to place exposures for nuclear,biological, chemical and radiological risks.

One major message coming out of the discussion was that thosewho seek to do business overseas need to plan ahead and do as muchresearch as possible on the clients with whom they plan to dobusiness.

South America and the Middle East are areas of opportunity forbusinessmen, said executives. But visitors need to know theirsurroundings and be aware of the foreign culture to avoid insultingsomeone with a gesture with unintended meaning.

Drew Watson, vice president with Kroll Security Group-NorthAmerica, noted that the biggest threats to visitors overseas remainhealth, hygiene and petty crimes. He said visitors should check Websites at the U.S. Department of State and the Centers for DiseaseControl for information on the country they plan to visit.

"Don't be a victim," he warned.

Mr. Watson said Kroll offers a training program on techniques tohandle emergencies and to deal with threats. Depending on where theindividual is visiting, and the amount of training required,training classes for one or a number of pupils can range from$4,500 to $45,000.