By Dr. Steve Smith, VP of ReAdvisory

Wilma formed west of Jamaica over the weekend. Wilma is the 21stnamed storm of the season, which means 2005 is level with 1933 asthe most active season on record. Any storms that form subsequentto Wilma (a reasonable expectation) will be named from the Greekalphabet.

So far, Wilma's movement has been slowly westward as thesteering currents are light over the Caribbean Sea. Wilma'sforecasted track has been erratic over the last few forecast cyclesas the models struggle to come to grips with the atmosphericconditions. The models continue to remain inconsistent with the NHChaving an unusually low confidence in the models three-to-five daysout. However, over the next few days, we expect a slow westwarddrift, which may lead Wilma to a landfall along Mexico's YucatanPeninsula. Beyond three-to-five days, the forecasts become morespeculative:

o If Wilma makes a landfall further south on Yucatan, this willprobably cause Wilma to decay over land and lose significantintensity. In that case, Wilma may intensify again over the Bay ofCampeche (like Emily and Stan earlier this year) and a secondlandfall along the Mexican coast or southern Texas is likely.

o If Wilma makes a grazing landfall over the northern tip ofYucatan (as the NHC forecast is currently predicting), Wilma willmove into the Gulf of Mexico and curve to the northwest. Thispossibility opens up the U.S. Gulf coast to the potential for alandfall mid-to-late next week. Given that a low pressure systemcurrently over California is forecasted to shift eastward, pushingWilma ahead of it, this makes a landfall along the coast of Alabamato Florida much more likely than a landfall from Louisiana toTexas.

Intensity predictions are notoriously hard to make over any longperiod. However, we can make some basic predictions:

1.) If Wilma takes the more southerly track towards Yucatan, itwill likely reach strong tropical storm or weak hurricane statusbefore landfall.

2.) If Wilma takes the more northerly track towards the tip ofYucatan, Wilma will pass over the warm waters of the Gulf, whichcould allow Wilma to intensify to a major hurricane (Cat 3). Thewaters in the Gulf are warm but not as warm as earlier in theseason when they played a large role in making Katrina and Rita twoof the most intense hurricanes on record. If Wilma does take thisroute into the Gulf, a landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastbecomes a virtual certainty but, as the waters along Gulf Coastitself are cooler than the main Gulf, landfall as a major hurricaneis less likely.

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Disclaimer

ReAdvisory provides this report for general information only.The information contained herein is based on sources we believe tobe reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should beunderstood to be reinsurance information only. ReAdvisory makes norepresentations or warranties, express or implied. The informationis not intended to be taken as advice with respect to anyindividual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Readers arecautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-lookingstatements. ReAdvisory undertakes no obligation to update or revisepublicly any current or forward-looking statements, whether as aresult of new information, research, future events, orotherwise.